Friday Forecast

Friday: Today is looking really warm. Temps this morning will be around 50. Temps will rapidly rise in the afternoon to near 80. Winds will be 15-20mph with gusts near 40. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Some of these thunderstorms may be severe (more below). Thunderstorms will move through the area tonight. Temps will fall into the mid 40s by mid night tonight..

Severe Weather Threat This Afternoon: There is a threat for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Based on the latest model runs, thunderstorms will begin to impact our area between 3-6 this afternoon.Thunderstorm initiation looks to be as early as 2 and as late as 4. The earlier the initiation, the more time the storms have to obtain energy. CAPE (instability) values will range from 1000-2000J/Kg. A decent amount of wind shear will be in place later this afternoon. This will allow for rotating storms or super cells to develop. This will heighten the risk for large hail and an isolated tornado. I will update on the severe weather threat when I can. The Storm Prediction Center has us under a SLIGHT risk area today with a 15% chance for large hail and damaging winds and a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles (very small). South Eastern Indiana has a 30% chance for large hail and damaging winds and a 5% chance of a tornado with 25 miles of a point. The next update from the Storm Prediction Center is 12:30. I will update if they and the new model runs have new information.

Severe Threat for Tonight...Wednesday Forecast

The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma has issued a Slight risk area of severe weather for our area this evening. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. The threat for a tornado is 2% which is pretty small. Thunderstorms are developing in western Illinois right now. Storms will roll through late tonight-early tomorrow morning. Severe storms are possible around or a little after midnight tonight.

Wednesday: The day will start warm in the mid 50s. Clouds will clear as the day progresses with a few clouds hanging on in the afternoon. Temps will rise into the mid 70s. Winds will be gusty at 15-20mph with gusts near 40mph. As night falls, skies will be clear which will allow the temps to fall rapidly. Also, low dew points will help the temp fall fast. Temps will be in the mid 40s by midnight and the upper 30s by the following morning.

Updates to today's forecast and Tuesday's Forecast

Today: A few showers are possible through early afternoon. I will forecast a 30% chance for a light shower. I still expect temps to top out near 60, but we may end up a degree or 2 short.

Tuesday: A few clouds will be around for the morning. The mostly clear night will allow for temps to be in the mid 30s Tuesday warning. A frost advisory is in effect for Tuesday morning through 10a.m. A freeze warning is in effect for Lafayette eastward. The frost/freeze warnings have the potential to kill off newly budded vegetation. If you have flowers or any other vegetation susceptible to freezing temperatures, cover them up tonight. As the day moves forward, skies will clear out. This will allow for the temperature to soar into the low 70s. Winds will be 10-15mph with gusts near 30mph toward evening. Clouds will increase during the evening hours. A line of showers and thunderstorms will pass late Tuesday-Early Wednesday morning. Moderate CAPE (or instability) decent wind shear, moderate Helicity (spinning in the atmosphere), and dew points near 60 will allow for some severe storms to develop. New model runs are suggesting that severe storms will have enough "ingredients" to affect the area. I will have a better idea later this evening. At the moment, large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated weak tornado appear to be the main threats. Temps during the evening will hold near 60.

Monday Forecast

Monday: Clouds will start the day and will stick around all day. No rain is expected at this time. Temps will start the day much cooler than what they have been. (right around 40) Clouds will inhibit a decent warm up for the afternoon, but expect temps to top out near 60.Winds will be from the Northeast at 10-15mph with gusts up to 30mph. Clouds will stick around for the evening hours with temps dropping to near 40. Tuesday morning may see temps near freezing.

Mushroom Update: The total is now up to 127 after finding 49 mushrooms today. The yellows/grays are coming along. The morels should really be up by next weekend barring any freeze that may occur.

Saturday Forecast

Today: A nice day is in store for today. The temp is already near 70. I am going to forecast a high of 73 today (this number may be a little conservative). A few thunderstorms are possible today as the low spins through the ohio river. Winds will be light today with "gusts" only reaching 10mph. Enjoy the day!!

Morel Update: Dad and I went out this morning and took home 28 black morels. This brings the season total up to 76 morels. We also found our first yellow and gray morels today. We found a total of 9, but we left them to grow and were not counted into the total above. I have a feeling tomorrow will be a good day to look.

Friday Forecast...........Chances for Severe Weather

A thunderstorm watch has been issued for South-western Indiana and Southern Illinois. I expect a thunderstorm watch to be issued for our area later today. The main threats will be large hail, wind gusts up to 60mph, and an isolated weak tornado.

The chances for severe weather are thanks to an incoming cold front associated with a strong low pressure system. Also, temp in the mid 70s and dew points in the 60s will allow for an unstable air mass. Also, the upper low has a cold pocket which will allow for towering cumulus clouds to develop. Wind shear is also more than sufficient to allow for super cells to form.

Currently: We are in between 2 waves of rain. This will allow for some sun to show for the next few hours. This will warm our temps into the mid 70s. Rain/thunderstorms will start up again after 4.

Wednesday Forecast

Wednesday: The morning will again be warm with temps in the low-mid 60s. Scattered cumulus clouds will be around all day. Rain chances are very small for tomorrow. Winds will be 10-15 mph with an occasional gust near 30mph. Temps will again top out in the mid 80s. Don't rule out temps in the upper 80s if enough sun can make it through. This again will set a new record which is currently 83 set in 1907. As night falls, clouds will gradually increase ahead of a storm system that will impact our area Thursday afternoon. Temps will stay in the upper 60s to near 70.

Morel Update: Found 8 morels today. All black sponge. After the rain Thursday evening and Friday, they should come up really well.

Tuesday Forecast

Tuesday: The morning will start warm and mostly sunny with temps in the low 60s. As the day goes on, a few clouds will build in. An isolated shower/thunderstorm is possible. High temps for tomorrow will again exceed record levels. Winds will crank up in the afternoon 13-20mph with gusts as high as 35mph.  Temps are expected to be in the mid to even upper 80s. This will most likely set a record which is currently 83 set in 1907. Be weary of staying in the sun too long. You can and will get a sunburn. I have been in the sun the past few days and I have flared up my sun poisoning again :/ Try to limit outdoor activities and wear sun block. (SPF 30 or higher) As night falls, any thunderstorms that developed during the day will die off. Skies will also clear back up. Temps again will stay in the mid 60s.

Morel Update: I will give frequent updates about morels/mushrooms and how they are progressing. If you have any pics or stories, feel free to send and share them here or on my facebook.

Yellows and Grays are beginning to come up. Need Proof:  http://blogs.wlfi.com/2012/03/19/55870/ I will be looking for morels tomorrow. I will post how many I find and pics.

Saturday Forecast

Saturday: The morning will start with a few clouds and temps in the mid 50s. Clouds will gradually increase in the afternoon. A few thunderstorms will bubble up in the afternoon. Highs will be in the low 80s. This will set a new record that is currently 78 in 1945. Winds will be fairly light at 5-10mph with an occasional gust up to 20mph. After nightfall, thunderstorms will remain a possibility. Temps will be in the mid 60s.

Friday Forecast

Friday: Tomorrow will start Florida like with temps right around 60. Mostly cloudy-partly cloudy skies will be around all day. Temps will rise in the afternoon into the low-mid 80s. This will again set a new record high. The current record is 79 set in 1945. Winds will be 5-10mph with an occasional gust up to 20mph. A few pop up thunderstorms are likely in the afternoon. As night falls, a few widely scattered thunderstorms are possible. Temps will be in the low-mid 60s.Skies will also remain partly cloudy.

Thursday Forecast

Thursday: The warmest start to a morning in awhile will be tomorrow. Temps will be in the low 60s when you wake up. This warmth in the morning will continue through next week. It is turning into a summer pattern, but it won't last through the summer. Colder weather is expected later in the month and April. In the mean time, skies will be partly cloudy for the day Thursday. A few thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon starting as early as the noon hour, none are expected to be severe at this time. Temps will again peak in the low to even mid 80s. Winds will be 10-15mph with gusts up to 30mph. This will produce another record high for the day. As night falls, temps will stay comfortably in the mid 60s. Also, there is a chance for a thunderstorm during the overnight hours.

Thunderstorms beginning to fire

Thunderstorms are beginning to form in Illinois. Isolated thunderstorms will move in overnight. The main threat will be large hail.

Severe Weather Possible Tonight...........New Record (Unofficially)

Decent shear will be present tonight amongst a very unstable air mass. This will promote isolated severe storms to form tonight. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail.

We are currently sitting at 84. We have smashed the record of 78 set in 1995. The March all time high is 90 set in 1910.. We won't get that high today, but we may push another degree or 2 to 86.

Tuesday Forecast

Tuesday: Tomorrow will be very similar to today, minus all the wind. The morning will start in the low 50s. Skies will be mostly sunny with a few clouds here and there. Winds will also be fairly light. Winds will be 5-10 mph with an occasional gust to near 15mph. Temps will rise rapidly in the afternoon maxing out in the low-mid 70s. After night fall, temps will stay in the range of mid 60s to upper 50s.

Wednesday and Thursday: Wednesday and Thursday will be exceptionally mild. Both days have the potential to top out at 80. Today's high was 75!!

Monday Forecast

Tomorrow will start a long string of 70s for the upcoming week.

Monday: Temps will start the day above our average high in the mid 40s for this time of the year. Tomorrow will start the day in the mid 50s. Rain and a few thunderstorms will be around for the morning commute. Showers should diminish by the afternoon. Clouds will stick around for the entire game. High temperatures will top out near 72º. Winds will be gusty from the South at 13-19mph. Gusts late afternoon- the evening hours will near 40mph. As night falls, temps will stay in the upper 50s to low 60s. Clouds will also tend to stick around for the evening hours. 

Sunday Forecast..........long string of 70s

Sunday: The day will start chilly with temps near 32. Upper to mid level clouds will begin to move in, in the afternoon. Winds will be around 10mph for most of the day. Winds will gradually increase in the afternoon. Temps will be in the mid-upper 60s in the afternoon. As night falls, low clouds will begin to move in ahead of the next storm system. These low clouds will also bring a chance for rain. Rain and thundershowers are possible late Sunday night early Monday morning.

The upcoming week: Expect temps above 70 for the upcoming week. Temperatures have the potential to top out in the mid to even upper 70s.

Thursday Forecast

Thursday: Rain and thundershowers will move in overnight Wednesday and will continue through Thursday early afternoon. Thursday morning will feature rain and thunder showers with temps very mild in the low-mid 50s. This however will be the high for the day. The temp will drop through the day Thursday. Temps will hover around 45 in the afternoon. Winds will slack a little from the NW at 10-20mph with gusts up to 35 mph. As night falls, skies will clear with only a few clouds around. This mostly clear sky will allow the temp to drop in the mid 20s.

The upcoming week looks nice with several days in the 70s. After below freezing temps for Saturday and Sunday mornings, temps below freezing will likely not happen until atleast Monday March 19!!

Wednesday Forecast

Wednesday: Wednesday is shaping up to be a nice day. Clouds will start the morning with more clouds building through the day. Temps will start the morning in the mid 40s Strong winds will also be an issue for Wednesday. Winds will be from the South at 22-28mph will gust up to 45-50mph. This South wind will help the temp get into the upper 60s to near 70 for an afternoon high. As night falls, a denser cloud deck will move in ahead of a cold front. Rain/thunder showers are possible late Wednesday night. Temps will stay in the mid-upper 50s for the rest of the evening - Thursday morning hours.

What caused the March 2, 2012 Tornado Outbreak?

An unseasonably warm air mass moved into the area at the start of the day on March 2. A low tracking from the plains moved almost directly over the Attica area to the north east. Before the low even got here, a cluster of storms from the previous night formed and moved across Illinois and Indiana. These storms produced hail up to golf ball size in Terre Haute Indiana with larger hail further to the west. This hail event was caused by a few lone super cells that tracked for approximately 6 hours!!

A line of storms developed in Illinois and raced east-northeast ward. Shortly thereafter, a PDS tornado watch was issued from our area. (Image Credit: Storm Prediction Center spc.noaa.gov )

As these storms raced east-northeast ward, they encountered a very strong jet stream. The jet stream combined with warm air from the south and cold air crashing in from the north east, produced an immense amount of rotation in the lower levels. Especially in Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky.

This strong jet also allowed for speeds of the thunderstorms to be extreme. Tornado warning were issued for Central Kentucky that said the speed of the thunderstorm was 85mph. If a tornado is confirmed to move this fast, this would set a new world record which would beat the previous 73mph set by the Tri State Tornado in 1925. (Dr. Jeff Master's Blog ) Tornadoes that move this fast will come and go with little warning. This is also a major factor when it came to the high death toll of the event. On the other hand, there was a lot of warning for this storm system to be very dangerous.

This combination of jet stream, warm air moving north, and cold air rushing in from the northeast caused helicity values to soar over 1000m^2/s^s. High helicity values signify high rotation in various parts of the atmosphere. These 1000+ values were located fairly close to the ground. This is a big reason why tornadoes occurred and were exceptionally strong. (Unfortunately, I can't find a graph for this, you will have to take my word for it. I found this information on the day of the event when I was monitoring it from school/home.)

Another factor, that goes along with the unseasonably warm temperatures, is the high CAPE values. CAPE is instability that feeds thunderstorms. The higher the CAPE the more energy there is in the atmosphere. CAPE in southern Indiana exceeded 1000J/Kg which is more than enough for severe storms to feed off of. High dewpoints (especially in Southern Indiana) also fueled the fire for these storms. Dew points soared into the 60s. Henryville, IN, right before the tornado went through was sitting at 66.7 degrees with a dew point hovering around 60. ( Henryville, IN) Where the line stops is when the tornado struck or about 3:14p.m. You can see where the wind began to pick up and what the pressure was the instant the tornado struck. The pressure was lowered right before the tornado struck. This proves that supercells are miniature low pressure systems themselves.

Here is a radar image of Henryville IN (radar image from wunderground.com) This was a typical radar and wind image seen from Indiana southward to Alabama and Georgia. (Images obtained from Dr. Jeff Master's Blog )

 These radar signatures showed a very strong tornado and the results proved this image. At one point, I was looking at the radar for different areas around the Southern U.S. and I could tell with out showing the warning where tornado warning were at. I saw many hook echos (which is an example of the the image at the top) and many positive wind indicators (immediate top). This outbreak had all the ingredients necessary for a widespread outbreak and it lived up to its potential.

All in all, there have been 915 reports of severe weather thus far. 307 were damaging winds, 464 were hail with 48 being hail larger than 2" in diameter, and an astounding 144 reports of tornadoes. The tornado number means this is how many tornado reports have been received,  not necessarily the number of tornadoes that occurred. At this time 50 tornadoes have been confirmed with 15 EF2s, 10 EF3s, and 1EF4 (Henryville Indiana)

Monday Forecast

Friday was a very active severe weather day. There have been 2 confirmed EF4 tornadoes in Southern Indiana. These along with a couple EF3s and EF2s produced a lot of damage in southern Indiana. Another round of severe weather is slated for Wednesday and Thursday. These will not be as intense as the storms this past Friday. If I have time, I might make a blog on what exactly happened and what kind of dynamics produced these deadly tornadoes.

Monday: A few flurries may be around, otherwise, Monday will be cloudy. The morning will be chilly with temps in the mid 20s. Winds will pick up in the afternoon to 10-15mph with gusts near 30mph. Winds will start the day from the north, but will transition from the south thanks to the passage of a high pressure center to the south. High temps tomorrow will near 40º.  As night falls, low clouds will clear, but level clouds will fill in. A mostly cloudy wording will be used. Temps will drop into the low 30s.

A look ahead: Thunderstorms look possible for Thursday afternoon. At this time, it is still too early to tell if these storms will be severe. Given a cold pocket at 700mb (a little less than 2 miles above the ground) hail will form easily with any updraft

Tornado Potential

We have a very high potential for a tornado. Here is a link to the storm prediction center.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0206.html

Tornado Watch

The tornado watch has been upgraded to a PDS tornado watch or a Particularly Dangerous Situation. This means that tornadoes are likely in the warned area. Tornadoes are likely with stronger tornadoes possible. Be alert to the weather, a PDS tornado watch means life threatening conditions are likely.

Tornado Watch

We have been upgraded to a tornado watch. Update on this soon.

Thunderstorm Warning

There is a thunderstorms warning for Southeastern Fountain county. The main threat will be large hail. A few rumbles of thunder and rain are likely over the next hour or so for the Attica area.

Hail Report

Golf ball sized hail (1.75" in diameter) has been reported in Terre Haute.

Thunderstorms beginning to move in

This is the start to a very active weather day. We are under a thunderstorm watch until 12 today. A very intense cell looks to go just south of us. This storm has had a history of producing hail up to baseball size in Illinois. I expect this storm to impact Parke, Montgomery, and Southern Fountain County. The storm is trending north, so this will need to be watched closely over the next hour or so.

Friday Forecast

Basically most of the details are the same as yesterday. The timing looks to be a little earlier. It appears the squall line will move through between 2-5p.m. tomorrow. Other than that, everything is the same. The main threats will be damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated weak tornado.