Severe Weather Threat for Thursday August 9th

A strong cold front will move through sometime Thursday late afternoon/evening or early Friday morning. This will bring a chance for damaging winds and large hail. I don't think there will be a tornado threat, but I will update if there is one. There isn't a high enough helicity to warrant a tornado risk. All the below ingredients are good for a multicell or linear storm mode. A few super cells can't be ruled out with the wind shear.

CAPE values will be moderate/high. Surface CAPE values over 4000J/Kg seem likely. This is more than enough to fuel severe thunderstorms.

Dew points will also be very high. Dew points in the low 70s appear likely with the potential for dew points in the mid 70s!! This along with temps near 90 will produce a muggy day.

With this shear in place, a few super cells are possible. The overall storm mode will be multicell then transition to a more linear mode later in the evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Indiana in a 30% chance for severe weather tomorrow. Central Indiana will see the best chance for severe weather. Again, the main threats will be damaging winds and large hail.

Severe Threat for August 4th

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for Severe Storms for parts of Indiana, which includes a line from Attica to Lafayette to Ft. Wayne. These storm will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado is also possible with these storms.

 
These storms will be possible thanks to a cold front moving through the area. You may ask how I or meteorologists know where a cold front is at a given time. I have made a few situations based on tomorrrow's set up to show you a few ways/tricks.

 Storms need good instability and tomorrow will have more than enough....

Instability goes hand in hand with temps and dew points. Saturday will have high temperatures and high dew points. This will also lead to high heat index values. Heat indices will be at or exceed 110 in the western part of the state.

Another good ingredient to have for severe weather is high wind shear. We will have a decent amount of shear, but exceptional low-level winds.

Helicity is the amount of rotation in the atmosphere. There will be some, but not enough to call for multiple tornadoes. However, an isolated tornado is possible.

After analyzing all the data this is my prediction for severe weather as it stands now for tomorrow. I will have better grip for timing tomorrow morning. I am thinking late afternoon or early evening.

Severe Storm Possibility Today

Sunshine will come out today to destabilize the atmosphere.

Storms will initiate in the early afternoon hours.

Wind shear looks good for strong to severe storms today.

Given some helicity, an isolated tornado is possible, but not likely.

Downdrafts will be the main form of severe weather today.

CAPE values are more than enough to sustain severe storms.

Temps will rise in the afternoon into the upper 80s-low90s (90). Storms will bubble up in the afternoon thanks to day time heating and an incoming cold front. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado is also possible in the afternoon.

Brush Fire Danger: Extremely High

Due to our dry spell, conditions are prime for brush fires to get started. There have been numerous brush fires from around the state. One in Shelby County closed I-74 for a few hours. There is another brush fire in Tippecanoe county near Buck Creek and Lafayette.

Conditions are very favorable for brush fires to develop. Be careful if you have a fire or are a smoker. Cigarettes have caused a few brush fires.

Tomorrow

Thursday: It is going to be another dry and mostly sunny day tomorrow. The day will start with temperatures in the low 50s (51) and will soar in the afternoon into the mid 80s. (86) Winds will be light from the East shifting from the South East in the afternoon at 5-10mph. Temps overnight will cool into upper 50s to low 60s.

Severe Threat For Today

Today: It is currently a muggy 80º here at the house. We are on our way to a high of 90º later today. Due to the front slowing a little, thunderstorms will be here in the afternoon instead of the morning. This will allow for more destabilization in the atmosphere with the heating of the day. I expect storms to arrive in the area anytime between 2-8 today. Below are current scenarios of the weather right now. The severe storm threat for today is pretty marginal.

 The main threats with any storms that can be severe today will be gusty winds and large hail.

Today's Forecast

Today: It is another dry hot day. It is currently 83. The high for today was 89. Dewpoints are currently in the low to mid 40s and humidity is in the mid 20%. This in turn allows for an elevated fire danger for this afternoon. Winds will remain light at 5-10mph. A high pressure center is responsible for the mostly clear sky and light winds. The high pressure center is located in Southern Indiana. Thanks to the desert-like air mass, temps will fall rapidly this evening. We will see mid 70s by 8 and mid 60s by mid night. It will remain clear for the evening hours.

Week ahead (June 9-16): Temps will be in the 90s for tomorrow, Sunday, and possibly Monday. Late Sunday-Early Tuesday show rain and thunderstorms. Storms will start up Sunday evening, these storms look pulsey in nature, which means they will peak in intensity very quickly and fade away just as fast. The main line of storms will move through Monday evening. There appears to be enough  moderate wind shear and moderate CAPE or instability for isolated severe storms to develop. I will keep an eye on what new data says in the coming days. After that, it will be dry through June 20. Temps will be cooler neat week with temps ranging from the mid-upper 70s to the mid 80s.

Tropical Update: I'm not an expert at tropical weather, but I will give it a whirl. There appears to be a tropical storm that will impact the East coast June 19-21. The models keep it just off the coast, but it has the potential to make landfall in the North Carolina area. Winds with this storm are projected to be 40-55mph. It is possible however that this storm may be a hurricane. We will have to wait and see.