A strong cold front will move through sometime Thursday late afternoon/evening or early Friday morning. This will bring a chance for damaging winds and large hail. I don't think there will be a tornado threat, but I will update if there is one. There isn't a high enough helicity to warrant a tornado risk. All the below ingredients are good for a multicell or linear storm mode. A few super cells can't be ruled out with the wind shear.
CAPE values will be moderate/high. Surface CAPE values over 4000J/Kg seem likely. This is more than enough to fuel severe thunderstorms.
Dew points will also be very high. Dew points in the low 70s appear likely with the potential for dew points in the mid 70s!! This along with temps near 90 will produce a muggy day.
With this shear in place, a few super cells are possible. The overall storm mode will be multicell then transition to a more linear mode later in the evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Indiana in a 30% chance for severe weather tomorrow. Central Indiana will see the best chance for severe weather. Again, the main threats will be damaging winds and large hail.
No comments:
Post a Comment