Thursday Forecast.... Severe Weather Threat for Friday

Thursday: The day will start mostly cloudy with temps in the mid-upper 30s. Clouds will thin out some what in the afternoon. A partly-mostly cloudy wording will do. Temps will rise in the afternoon to around 50º. Winds will diminish through the day from 15-20mph in the morning to 5-10mph before nightfall. Skies will remain partly cloudy during the evening hours. Temps will be around 40º.

Friday: Friday looks like it will get interesting. I will do a general forecast then I will get into a more detail. Friday will start with rain and a few embedded thunderstorms. Temps will be in the low 40s. Winds will gradually increase through the day maxing out at 10-15mph later in the day.  A line of thunderstorms looks to move through our area in the time frame of 1-7p.m. (more on this below) Highs will max out in the mid 60s. As night falls, cloudy skies will dominate the sky with a few lingering showers. Temps overnight will be around 40º.

Friday Severe Weather Threat:

Here are some simulated images of the potential squall line.

 Dew point map

CAPE or instability at the ground level

High winds in all levels of the atmosphere suggest a linear storm mode. This is also known as wind shear.

Helicity or spin in the atmosphere can indicate tornadoes. The higher the helicity, the more spin there is.

CAPE Inhibition: The higher the CINH the harder it is for thunderstorms to get going. There is no sign of CINH in this map, so thunderstorms should pop in Illinois without too much trouble.

Here is the overall outlook for severe weather Friday evening:

Overall, I believe a squall line will develop in central Illinois and will race West- Southwestward. The storms may start super-cellular in Illinois and may produce a couple tornadoes.  As it progresses to Indiana, it will begin to become more linear and more intense. It will be fueled by the 1000 J/
kg Surface CAPE in front of the line. You can thank the dew points near 60º for the high surface CAPE. We may see a weather watch as early as 3 Friday afternoon. It will be pretty intense when the line moves into our area. Squall lines have a tendency to spawn weak tornadoes in the line and winds in excess of 80mph. The main threats will be high winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Especially from central Indiana southward. This weather system will need to be watched closely. I will update tomorrow with more information regarding this weather system.

Enjoy the Day Everyone

The is beginning to move through. The thunderstorm threat is decreasing rapidly. Sunny skies will dominate the rest of the day. Temps will peak near 71 a few hours from now. If this temp is reached, a new record high for Attica will be set. Winds this afternoon will gust to 50mph.

Wednesday Forecast .............Thunderstorms

A cluster of rain and thunder showers are moving East North East into our area. This will bring heavy rain and a few thunderstorms to the area this evening.

Wednesday: Temps tomorrow morning will be warm with temps in the upper 40s to near 50. Rain showers and thunderstorms will be around for the morning commute.Rain and thunderstorms will continue until midday or in the time frame of 11-1. A narrow squall line will form either on top of us or just to the East of us. Temps will max out tomorrow at 68. After the squall line is East of us, sunny skies will dominate thanks to a dry line. Winds will be from the SW at 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 50mph.  As night falls, temps will fall into the low-mid 40s. Clouds will also come in overnight.

Severe Storms will likely happen in the Eastern part of Indiana. As for the Attica area, an isolated severe storm is possible if the squall line can initiate soon enough.

Thunderstorm Risk for Tuesday-Wednesday

Tuesday: The morning will start chilly with temps in the mid 20s. Temps will warm rapidly in the afternoon into the mid 50s. Winds will be moderate at 10-15 mph. Mid level clouds will stick around through the evening. Temps overnight will hold in the mid 40s. This is due in part to an advancing weather system which will bring warm air up from the Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms will move into the area late Tuesday night- Wednesday morning. At this moment, there is a marginal severe threat. The main threats will be gusty winds and some small hail.

Wednesday: A narrow squall line looks possible right along the dry front. This would happen midday or between 12-2p.m. This line will have the possibility of gusty winds and large hail. It is hard to tell when the squall line will initiate. We may get thunderstorms, or it may form to our east missing us completely. This last solution will pose a higher temperature of 1 or 2 degrees. After this dry front passes, temps will skyrockets into the upper 60s with plentiful sunshine. 70 degrees is possible. I will post tomorrow on the severe threat in more detail.

Monday Forecast

Monday: A few clouds will start the morning with temps in the mid 20s. Skies will gradually clear through the day as temps rise to near 50. Winds will be from the WNW at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph. As night falls, a few high clouds will move in. Temps will fall into the mid 20s.

Tuesday night- Wednesday morning: Thunderstorms look possible late Tuesday or early Wednesday. At this time, severe weather isn't expected, but this may change. I will update with more info tomorrow.

Sunday Forecast

Sunday: A few clouds are likely Sunday, but overall a partly cloudy wording is sufficient. Sunday will start cold with temps right around 20º. Winds will be from the South at 20-25mph with gusts up to 45mph, given this wind, wind chills at or below 10º at times are possible. However, this wind will help bring in warmer air for the afternoon. Temps will warm rapidly into the low 50s. Clouds will build in overnight as temps fall into the mid-upper 30s.

A Look Ahead: Thunderstorms look possible Tuesday night- Wednesday morning. A large severe weather outbreak looks possible for the Tennessee, Arkansas, and Mississippi region. Severe threat looks like it might creep into Southern Indiana. More on this in the coming days.

Friday Forecast

Tonight: Snow will likely move in tonight sometime after midnight. Accumulations of up to .5" are possible for this evening. Some of this snow may stick around for the morning commute for Friday.

Friday: Snow showers will continue through the day Friday. Accumulations less than .5" appears likely. The morning will start chilly with temps hovering around 32.  Winds will be from the WNW at 15-25mph with gusts as high as 45mph. Highs won't rise much tomorrow afternoon. The high only max out at 38. Flurries may continue through the evening hours with temps falling into the upper 20s.The high winds tomorrow make the temp feel colder than it actually is. Winds chills will dip into the mid 20s. Total snow accumulation looks to be less than .5"

Severe Threat

The storm prediction center has given us a chance for large hail today. A decent tornado threat is present for Southern Indiana. A few tornadoes are possible there this afternoon. More on this a little later.

Thursday Thunderstorms

Thursday: The morning will start with increasing cloudiness and temps in the low-mid 30s. Rain and some thunderstorms will move in Thursday afternoon. Severe storms look to happen from the southern half of Indiana southward. Highs will be in the mid 50s. Winds in the afternoon will be 15-20mph with gusts as high as 40mph. Rain showers with a few rumbles of thunder will continue into the overnight hours. A changeover to snow is possible late Thursday night early Friday morning. Temps overnight will dip into the low-mid 30s. Precipitation amounts will be less than .2" with higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday Forecast..... Thunderstorms?

Wednesday: Wednesday will start chilly with temps in the low-mid30s, 10-15mph winds, and cloudy skies. An isolated shower for the morning is possible. Winds during the day will be 12-18mph gusting to 35mph. Winds will start the day from the South, but they will end the day coming from the West. Temps will climb into the middle 50s. A better chance for rain will arrive during the afternoon tomorrow. Given some instability, an isolated rumble of thunder is not out of the question. Winds will remain gusty after nightfall at 10-15mph from the West. Temps will be around 40 for the evening hours. Precipitation amounts look minimal with less than .1" of rain expected. Amounts higher than .1" are possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight - Tuesday Forecast

Monday evening: A storm system will make its way into our area from the west this evening overspreading our area with time. Rain and some snow showers are likely to start after 9 tonight. Rain and snow showers will continue through the evening ending by late Tuesday morning.
Tuesday:  Tuesday morning will start in the mid 30s. This will melt off any snow we get during the evening hours. Skies will gradually clear with time through the day Tuesday. High temps will be in the mid-upper 40s. After nightfall, a few mid layer clouds will move in with temps in the mid-upper 30s.Winds will pick up from the WSW at 15-25mph with gusts up to 45mph. These winds will last through Wednesday morning.

Forecast Now- mid-late March

Here is a link to what the forecast is between now and March 22. 70s look possible along with severe weather in March.

http://blogs.wlfi.com/2012/02/16/first-70-degree-day-forecast-for-march-12/

Monday Forecast

Monday: Skies will be clear with a few high clouds here and there. Temps in the morning will be in the mid 20s. Frost will develop tomorrow morning. With clear skies, temps will warm up nicely with highs reaching into the lower and even upper 40s. Winds will be fairly light with 5-10 mph (gusting to 15mph) coming out of the SE. Overnight will see skies becoming cloudy with time ahead of the next weather system which will bring rain and a few snowflakes Tuesday. Temps overnight will be in the low-mid 30s.

Look ahead: Rain will start late Monday night early Tuesday morning with a possible transition to snow. At this time, little to no snow accumulation is expected. There is a chance for upper 50s and possibly 60 degree weather towards the end of the week.

Friday Forecast

Friday:  With light winds and high humidity, fog is again possible tomorrow morning. Frost will also form so break out the ice scrapers!! Temps to start the morning will be in the mid-upper 20s (hence why there will be frost). Winds will pick up through the day from the South to 7-12mph with gusts up to 20. After a chilly start, temps should climb into the lower and possibly mid 50s for Friday afternoon. Clouds will move in during the afternoon hours making a partly-mostly cloudy sky. Temps overnight will dip into the mid-low 30s.

Thunderstorms Tonight

Showers and a few thunderstorms will move in from the SW tonight. Rainfall totals will be in the range of .5-.75" with higher amounts in thunderstorms.

Thursday: Rain showers (with a rumble of thunder) will be around for the morning commute. Steadier rain should end by 9a.m. With light winds and a very moist ground, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw fog tomorrow morning. Temps will be in the mid-upper 30s. Skies will gradually clear with time through the day. A partly cloudy sky should be around for sunset. Highs tomorrow will get into the mid-upper 40s. Winds will pick up through the day with winds 12-18mph gusting to near 30mph from the NW. Temps overnight will drop into the low 30s.

A look ahead: Warmer temps look possible next week. Temps into the mid to upper 50s are quite likely. A chance for a few thunderstorms also enters the discussion for next week. 

Wednesday Forecast...Thunderstorms???

As hard as it is to believe, a few thunderstorms are possible tomorrow night.

Wednesday: Temps tomorrow morning will start in the mid-upper 20s. Skies will be cloudy with a chance for flurries and a stray rain shower in the morning. As the day wears on, highs will reach the mid 40s with widespread rainfall and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible overnight.   Winds will be 10-15 gusting to 30 mph during the day. Temps overnight will dip down into the upper 30s. Rainfall amounts will be in the neighborhood of .5"-.75".

Snowfall Total

I went with 2" of snow for us last night an I received 1.9" of snow. I don't think I could be any closer. I will have more totals from around the state later today.

Snow this evening

Snow showers are pivoting into our area right now. Snow has covered the ground with about .1" in accumulation thus far. Snow will pick up intensity later this evening.

The heavier snow is still about 2 hours away. I still expect 2" of snow for Attica with the possibility of 3" Travel tomorrow morning will be slippery. I noticed that salt was laid down in Attica today. This will help melt off the snow. Temps in the upper 20s will also help the salt melt the snow.

Tuesday: Snow and snow flurries will continue through late morning. Temps will start the day in the upper 20s. Winds will cause some blowing and drifting snow, but this should be minor due to how wet the snow is. Temps will rise in the afternoon to near 40º. This will allow for most of the snow to melt by evening. Clouds will hold on through the evening with temps only falling into the low 30s overnight. Fog looks possible Wednesday morning with the low winds and high humidity.

Snow Potential Monday Afternoon- Tuesday Morning

A storm system will bring snow to the area Monday afternoon-Tuesday morning.

Melting of the snow today has allowed for the soil to show. This in turn has allowed the temps to rise to near 40.

Monday: A mostly clear evening will lead to cold temps Monday morning. Temps will most likely be in the single digits. I would say below 0, but the day has been a little too warm to forecast that. Clouds will begin to build in during the morning hours resulting in a cloudy sky by 8 or 9a.m. Temps will rise in the afternoon to around 30.  Snow will start as early as 1p.m. with accumulating snow beginning after 3p.m. Snow will pick up in intensity during the evening hours. The heaviest snow looks to come down between midnight and 4a.m. Given temps in the upper 20s overnight, snow will be wet which means you can pack it. Winds will from the S to SW  at 10-15mph with gusts to near 30mph between Monday and Tuesday morning. This will  cause snow to drift across roadways making them ice covered. Travel Monday night and Tuesday morning look to be icy. I will update as new information comes in.....

Snowfall Prediction for Indiana Monday afternoon- Tuesday Morning

There will be a small 2-3" band that moves over our area. A rain snow mix is possible for far southern Indiana and less than an inch of snow can be expected for far northern Indiana where the least amount of moisture will be.

Snow Tomorrow??

Friday will start with clouds (a few flurries) and temps in the mid 20s. Winds will be from the S transitioning from the N after the passage of a cold front. Winds will be 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph during the day. Snow will begin to fly as early as mid morning. Heavier snow will fall in the afternoon. Temps will max out in the mid 30s. Snow will continue through the night and into Saturday morning. Winds overnight will pick up from 10-15mph to 20-25mph gusting to 40mph. This will promote blowing and drifting snow through the evening. Travel may be hazardous Saturday morning.

Now for the snow amounts............

This map looks good with the exception of the far northern Indiana 1-2" amounts. I don't think it will totally cross the state West to East, but I am confident in it at least going halfway to places like South Bend and Goshen.

Thursday Forecast

Clouds will diminish with time tonight allowing the temp to fall quickly.

Thursday:Mostly Sunny skies will be with us for tomorrow. Clear skies overnight will allow for temps to be in the low 20s for tomorrow morning. Temps will rise in the afternoon, maxing out near 40º. Winds will be from the WSW at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph. Skies will be mostly clear at night fall with temps dropping into the low-mid 20s.

Snow Potential

Snow accumulations for the most part will be below 1". I believe the Attica area will see between .1"-.5" of snow with an isolated 1" amount possible. Places in southern Indiana have a better shot at seeing 1" of snow.  For the people going to school, watch out for slick spots. Chance for a 2 hr. delay is between 20% and 30%.

Wednesday Forecast: Snow showers/flurries will be around for the morning commute, again watch for slick spots. Temps will hover around 30 in the morning with winds from the NW at 8-13mph and gusting up to 20mph. Temps will rise in the afternoon into the upper 30s. This will allow for the melting of the morning snow. All the snow should be melted by mid afternoon. Clouds will gradually exit overnight. This will allow the temperature to fall in a hurry. Temps will fall into the mid 20s by midnight and the low 20s-upper 10s by Thursday morning.

When will we see another snow maker?

It looks like we will see a decent storm system move in around Valentine's Day. A couple of inches of snow are possible with this storm, but it is still too early to tell at this time. A weaker storm system will move through Friday-Saturday. Accumulations look to be less than 1" at this time. I will update as more model data rolls in.

January 2012 Weather Review

The January 2012 weather review.

Tyler Snider (5 miles SW of Westpoint)
January, 2012
	High	Low	Actual Avg.	Precip.	Comments
01/01/12	47.8	30.7	39.25	0.04	flurries
01/02/12	30.6	20.3	25.45	0
01/03/12	29.5	11.5	20.5	0
01/04/12	45.9	25.3	35.6	0
01/05/12	51.1	23	37.05	0
01/06/12	57.8	33.3	45.55	0
01/07/12	47.9	27.3	37.6	0
01/08/12	45.4	21.6	33.5	0
01/09/12	50.4	21.7	36.05	0
01/10/12	54.8	25.3	40.05	0
01/11/12	44.4	30	37.2	0
01/12/12	36.2	14.7	25.45	0.35	3.5” of snow (precip based on standard 10:1
01/13/12	25.7	11.9	17.8	0
01/14/12	31.2	1.5	16.35	0
01/15/12	34.5	-0.6	16.95	0
01/16/12	56.1	29.3	42.7	0.04
01/17/12	57.2	24.2	40.7	1.24	thunderstorms/ small hail
01/18/12	30.2	13.8	22	0
01/19/12	30	1.4	15.7	0.3	3” of snow
01/20/12	21.4	-1.8	9.8	0	Snow overnight
01/21/12	28.4	14	21.2	0.25	2.5” of snow (early morning)
01/22/12	44.7	17.6	31.15	0.25	thunderstorms
01/23/12	50	33.4	41.7	0.58	windy
01/24/12	39.3	24.4	31.85	0
01/25/12	34.3	22.7	28.5	0.05
01/26/12	36.3	32.7	34.5	0.94
01/27/12	45.2	33.3	39.25	0.01	.2” snow/sleet accumulation
01/28/12	39.1	30	34.55	0.02
01/29/12	39.3	21.4	30.35	0
01/30/12	57.3	22	39.65	0
01/31/12	61	45	53	0
	42.03	21.31	31.64	4.07	Days above 50: 9 Days below 0: 2
Normal	33.1	16.45	24.775	1.86	Total snow accumulation for the season: 13”
Departure	8.93	4.86	6.865	2.21

January 2012 started dry (for the most part) with sunny days and highs in the mid-upper 50s. This all changed when our first "snow storm" of 2012 rolled in on the 12th. This brought 3.5" of snow to our area doubling our season total at the time. Our first night below 0 (15th) was recorded a few days after this storm as there was a little snow pack left on the ground at the time. Thunderstorms rolled through with small hail early on the morning of the 17th. This brought a few tornadoes to southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. There were 16 reported tornadoes that day with 6 reports in Indiana. We also received 1.28" of rain on the 17th which helped the Wabash rise to flood stage. 19-23rd saw a pretty active pattern. The 19th saw 3" of snow then the following evening saw 2.5" of snow. This has been the most snow in a 60hr. period so far. Temps bottomed out at -1.8 after the 3" snow. The snow pack allowed the temps to fall below 0 for the second time this winter. Warmer temps on the 22nd allowed for a severe weather outbreak just south of our area. A total of 45 tornadoes were reported on the 22nd. 21 reports were from Alabama with 17 reports out of Arkansas. Another storm system made its way in on the 26th with nearly an inch of rain. This again helped the Wabash flow outside of its banks. A minor snow/sleet event happened on the morning of the 27th with .2" of snow and sleet accumulation. Sunny and warmer temps ended the month with a high of 61. The warm temps and sunny skies would continue into early February.

New Info on snow potential shortly!!

7 Day Forecast Feb. 7-13

I am going to start my 7 day forecasts again.

Low Clouds are Holding On

These low clouds are keeping our temperatures down today. The current temps here are in the mid 30s. If you go to Indianapolis, the temperature is right around 50º.

You can see the cloud deck over Northwestern Indiana and Illinois. You can see the snow from the last storm in Iowa and Nebraska.

Tuesday Forecast: Skies will be partly cloudy to start the day. Temps will start the day in the mid20s. Given moist conditions near the surface, fog looks likely. Visibility may be less than .25 mile at times. Fog is projected to last until 11 tomorrow morning. Temperatures will max out near 40º. This temp depends on how early the fog can burn off. The quicker the fog burns off, the higher the temp will be. Winds will be light through the day, but they will pick up after nightfall. Temps overnight will be in the low-mid 30s. More clouds will move in overnight with a few flurries late Tuesday night. Snow accumulations look light with less than 1" of snow.

Note: This is my 100th blog post. It is hard to believe I have already done 100 blog posts. I will continue to update my blog for the Attica/Lafayette area even when I go to college in Oklahoma.

I hope to get a 7 day forecast up later today... it has been awhile since I have done one.

Superbowl Forecast

Well above normal temps today led to a high of 51 here at the house.

Superbowl: Temps will be right around 40 for kickoff (about 6:30). Skies will be mostly clear tonight with a few low clouds around. Temps will be in the low 30s by the end of the game. Winds will be light and variable at 5mph.

Saturday Forecast

Showers will begin late tonight early tomorrow morning.

Saturday: Temps will start the day in the upper 30s to near 40. Rain will be around all day with a possible break in the rain n the afternoon. Before more rain moves in near sun down. Temps will remain steady in the afternoon in the low-mid 40s. After sun down temps will fall into the upper 30s. It will be cold rain for the overnight. A changeover to snow is possible late tomorrow night. Accumulations up to .5" of snow are possible Saturday night-Sunday morning.

The Superbowl looks decent with partly cloudy skies and temps in the mid 40s. Given the latest trends, I wouldn't be surprised if we break 50º Sunday, but for right now, mid40s are sufficient.

Thursday Forecast

Warm Spring-like temps will continue tomorrow.

Thursday: Temps will be in the low 30s tomorrow morning which will promote patchy frost development. Partly Cloudy skies will be the rule tomorrow. Temps will max out at in the mid 50s. Winds will be light at 5-10mph and variable. As night falls, a few more high clouds will move in. I will keep the partly cloudy wording for the evening hours. Temps will be in the low-mid 40s overnight.

Snow??? Accumulating snow is now looking less likely for this weekend. Right now, snow accumulations look to be less than an inch. I will post changes to this forecast when and if necessary. I figure I will have a good idea on snow totals by tomorrow or Friday.