Severe Weather Threat for Thursday August 9th

A strong cold front will move through sometime Thursday late afternoon/evening or early Friday morning. This will bring a chance for damaging winds and large hail. I don't think there will be a tornado threat, but I will update if there is one. There isn't a high enough helicity to warrant a tornado risk. All the below ingredients are good for a multicell or linear storm mode. A few super cells can't be ruled out with the wind shear.

CAPE values will be moderate/high. Surface CAPE values over 4000J/Kg seem likely. This is more than enough to fuel severe thunderstorms.

Dew points will also be very high. Dew points in the low 70s appear likely with the potential for dew points in the mid 70s!! This along with temps near 90 will produce a muggy day.

With this shear in place, a few super cells are possible. The overall storm mode will be multicell then transition to a more linear mode later in the evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Indiana in a 30% chance for severe weather tomorrow. Central Indiana will see the best chance for severe weather. Again, the main threats will be damaging winds and large hail.

Severe Threat for August 4th

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for Severe Storms for parts of Indiana, which includes a line from Attica to Lafayette to Ft. Wayne. These storm will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado is also possible with these storms.

 
These storms will be possible thanks to a cold front moving through the area. You may ask how I or meteorologists know where a cold front is at a given time. I have made a few situations based on tomorrrow's set up to show you a few ways/tricks.

 Storms need good instability and tomorrow will have more than enough....

Instability goes hand in hand with temps and dew points. Saturday will have high temperatures and high dew points. This will also lead to high heat index values. Heat indices will be at or exceed 110 in the western part of the state.

Another good ingredient to have for severe weather is high wind shear. We will have a decent amount of shear, but exceptional low-level winds.

Helicity is the amount of rotation in the atmosphere. There will be some, but not enough to call for multiple tornadoes. However, an isolated tornado is possible.

After analyzing all the data this is my prediction for severe weather as it stands now for tomorrow. I will have better grip for timing tomorrow morning. I am thinking late afternoon or early evening.