Snowfall Totals

I forgot to say how much we received. Odell (my house) received 1.5" Attica received 1" Lafayette received 2.6" Benton County near 0 Northwestern Warren County 0-Trace There are places in eastern and northeastern Indiana who have received 5". Some of these places may see up to 8" of snow!!

Snowfall Totals

How did everybody like there first measurable snowfall. All the rain and leftover snow will freeze tomorrow morning to make an icy commute. Lows into the mid 20s may occur this evening into tomorrow morning. Drive carefully and watch for ice.

Snowfall Estimates

Snow is likely for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. How much you may ask? I feel that .5" is likely with up to 3" not out of the question. All it takes is for the track to wobble just a little. The track of the low will be the difference maker. Also, dynamic cooling will happen with isolated spots getting more than other areas. Something that will be cool to watch for is thundersnow. Thundersnow occurs when snow falls very quickly cloud structures are similar to thunderstorms. I will update as more information is available.

Snow Chances For Next Week

It's getting to be that time of the year when we start to talk about snow accumulations. Sunday-Wednesday will see plenty of chances for accumulating snow. Sunday night into Monday will see the chance for snow with up to a half inch possible.

The interesting day for snow looks like Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning. The models have anywhere from no snow up to 4". I can't definitely put a snow amount on it because it is so hard to forecast. Dynamic cooling is the main culprit in this forecasting headache. One place may see a few inches of snow while another place not 15 miles away won't even see a flurry. Dynamic cooling is random and changes frequently. Depending on where this dynamic cooling is at a given time will tell how much snow will happen in a given area.

I think we will see snow Tuesday-Wednesday, but it's anyone's guess as to how much. I hope to have a better idea on totals by Monday night.

Showers, Snow, and a look ahead into early December

We will see a wave of showers begin to move in tomorrow late afternoon-early evening. This wave of showers will persist through Sunday ending with the possibility of a few snow flurries. Snow on Sunday will not accumulate to much, probably a dusting at best. Rain totals for Saturday - Sunday should amount from .4-.6"

We will see a wave of showers with a few snow showers arrive from the south late morning-early afternoon on Monday. Snow looks minimal with up to a half inch possible.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning looks promising for snow. It is still too early to tell how much will accumulate. I will let everyone know as the time gets closer.

Snow Potential Early Next Week

Sunday
It will be warm enough for rain in the morning and afternoon. Toward late afternoon and early evening a few flurries may fall. At this point, a dusting is possible. The ground will be warm from the 60s the past few days so snow will have a hard time sticking.

Monday - Wednesday
The new model runs have taken precipitation completely off for this time period.

December 8th

This day in particular has a good chance of seeing measurable snow fall. The current model (as I read it) is suggesting 1-3 inches of snow, but this is really far in advance and will likely change. It does look like a big rain/snow storm for the country sometime around this date. I will keep my eye on this and I will let you know the latest information as it comes in.

Storms, Snow Chances, and Thansgiving Day Forecast

The end of this week will be extremely nice. Temps for tomorrow will approach 60 (morning low in the upper30s) with mostly clear skies and  with a 15-25mph wind coming out of the south.

Friday
will be even better with temps in the low 60s(morning low of low to mid 40s). The skies will start sunny with some increasing clouds in the afternoon. There will be a south wind at 15-25mph with gusts to 30mph.

Saturday
will be even warmer with temps approaching the mid 60s(morning low of mid to upper40s). A cold front will move through in the afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Given the moderate instability and some CAPE, there is the slight chance one of these storms will be strong. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Chance of precip. is 60%. Winds will be from the south to begin the day at 15-25mph. As the cold front passes, winds will be from the west at 20-30mph with gusts as high as 40mph overnight. The temp will fall rapidly overnight with wind chills in the teens-20s.

Sunday
will be cool with a high of only around 40 (morning low in the low to mid 30s). Rain, snow, and sleet showers will be around for the entire day. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Winds will be from the west-northwest around 10-20mph.

Enjoy the next 3 days. After Saturday, there is a chance for snow showers every day through Tuesday. I will have a blog a little later about how much snow we can expect.

Snowfall

The first snowfall for western Indiana is coming soon. When you may ask, well next week. Monday looks prime for snow. At this time, it looks like around .5", but this may change.

Storms, Snow, Sleet, and Freezing Rain Potential

I will have a forecast later this afternoon/evening on the potential of all the above weather phenomena.

Brush Fire Danger

Given the low humidity (less than 30%), low dew point, and gusty winds. Today is prime for a minor brush fire to start. If you have to burn something today keep your eye on it. Be sure to have a hose ready to put out the fire if it leaves the confines of the fire pit.

7 Day Forecast

Here is the 7 day forecast.

Thursday November 17

It will be a frigid morning with lows around 25. A few clouds in the morning will lead to mostly clear skies in the afternoon. Winds will be out of the west-northwest 15-20mph gusting to 30. The high temp will only top out at 43.

Friday November 18

It will be another frigid morning with lows again around 25. Skies will be mostly cloudy turning to all cloudy by the end of the day into the evening. It will be a winy afternoon with winds out of the south from 20-25 gusting to 35mph. The high temp will top out near 50.

Saturday November 19

The morning will be cool, but not as cool as the previous morning only getting down to 32. Skies will be cloudy for the most part with a chance for a few peaks of sun. Rain showers are possible late Saturday. At this time there is no indication of storms, but this might change. Rain will most likely move in after 7. The Purdue game will be cloudy and windy with a south wind at 20-25mph with gusts near 35mph. Highs for the afternoon Saturday should be in the mid 40s, but the high temp will come overnight as temps will rise into the mid 50s. This is due in part to a low pressure moving to our north and north west. This will allow warm air to be transported into the warm sector, image of this below.

Sunday November 20

The morning will warm with temps in the mid 50s and rainy. Showers with possible thunderstorms will continue until mid-day before decreasing to a chance for sprinkles in the afternoon. The chance for precipitation is 50%. Rain totals will be light with less than a quarter of an inch(slightly more in thunderstorms). The high will come in the morning as the temp will fall through the afternoon with the passage of the cold front. This temp will fall to the high 30s by midnight. Skies will transition from cloudy to mostly cloudy after the passage of the cold front. Winds will be from the south from 15-25mph. The winds will change from the north after mid day with winds 5-10mph. This north wind will help cool us rather quickly.

Monday November 21

The morning will start cool with temps in the mid 30s. Overall, it will be a cool cloudy day with a chance for rain in the afternoon as a shortwave passes. There may be a snow shower or 2 for the morning, but it won't accumulate. The chance for precipitation is 25%. Winds will be from the north at 10-15mph. The high temperature will only top out around 44.

Tuesday November 22

The morning will be nice with temps in the mid 40s. Skies will be cloudy with a 40% chance for rain later in the day through the evening as a low pressure rides along the Ohio River. Winds will be from the east at 10-15mph. The high temp will be about 52.

Wednesday November 23

Temps will be cool for the morning commute with temps in the low 30s. There will be a cool wind from the north and north west at 10-20mph. Skies will be mostly clear to start the day transitioning to partly cloudy later in the day. High temperatures will top out in the high 40s.

At this time, no snow more than 1 inch is expected within this 7 day forecast. Do you want to guess when the first 1” snowfall for Lafayette will be? If you do head on over to WLFI to guess the date and time. If you guess the date correctly, you will win a $600 gift card for Meijer, a lift time supply of salt for your driveway, and a visit from the meteorologist at WLFI to help shovel your snow. The link to the sweepstakes is below. You have to 18 years or older and you have to reside in the WLFI viewing area. Good Luck!!

http://www.wlfi.com/generic/participate/contests/wlfi-first-snowfall-contest-gj 

7 Day Detailed Forecast Later This Evening

I have been extremely busy lately and I haven't had time to blog about the weather. I won't blog tomorrow (tomorrow will be my 18th birthday), but I will put a detailed 7 day forecast on here later this afternoon/evening. There may be a few surprises...

Severe Storms Possible For Mid To Late Afternoon

The track has shifted a little to the north allowing for more instability for thunderstorms here. Everything is in place to have severe weather as mentioned in the last blog post. Given the very high wind shear, these storm will merge into a QLCS line or squall line. The main threats with this squall line will be damaging winds, and an isolated weak tornado.

Severe Threat For Tomorrow

 Tonight: showers and thunderstorms will arrive later this evening. Given the weak instability, a small hailer is possible. The temp will only drop to a low of 50.

The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow in our area. We will have 300-500J/Kg CAPE, high shear, temps in the mid 60s, and some good moisture coming from the gulf. All these ingredients are a good sign for severe weather. The question is, will the instability hold out for our area. There is a very steep drop off a few miles to the north. The further the track of the low north, the better chance for severe weather. All in all, it is going to be close.

Weekend Forecast and Storm Chances

Saturday November 12

Lows for the morning look to be around 32º under mostly clear skies. Saturday will have sunny skies with a high getting close to 60º. It will also be windy with winds 15-25mph gusting to 35mph. The evening will be nice with temps only dropping to the mid 40s.

Sunday  November 13

Sunday morning will be crisp with a temp in the mid 40s. Temps will climb in the afternoon to the low 60s as a warm front migrates northward. Showers will be possible along this front from late morning into the afternoon. Winds will be gusty at 20-30mph with gusts as high as 40mph. The evening will have a chance for rain with temps getting down into the high 40s low 50s.

Monday November 14

Monday morning will be decent with a temp in the low 50s. Showers and thunderstorms will be around for the day as the warm front stalls out over our area. The temp will max out in the mid 60s(maybe even as high as 70º). Winds will be again be gusty at 10-20mph gusting to near 30mph. Given the instability, shear, and dew points in the 50s. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a severe storm or 2 Monday afternoon. It is still too early to tell at this point, but I will definitely keep my eye on later model runs to see what they show.

Happy Veterans Day to all the veterans out there!! Thank you for your service!!

New Weather Station!!

I have a new weather station that is broadcasting on the web. Here is the link......

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KINATTIC3

Be sure to bookmark this so you can go directly to it.

Tomorrow and what's to come...

A few showers will linger through the evening hours. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with a chilly high only reaching 42º. We will see a temp Thursday night into Friday morning achieve a low of 25º.

Storms return to the forecast for early next week. At this point, it appears the setup will be similar to the system that has impacted us the last few days. We will see temps get close to 70º for Monday and Tuesday. Severe storms are not anticipated right now, but this can change.

We will need to watch this closely to see if this instability will move farther north.

Cold Front Passing, temps are beginning to fall.

Temps have fallen from 62 to 58 in the last hour. We are well on our way to a low of the mid 20s for tonight. This front brought an estimated 35-40mph gust. Hard to tell from the Spanish room.....

 A stray shower is possible, but overall it should be a dry, cool, and mostly cloudy. I will have a new post later this afternoon.

Alaska Superstorm

This storm is absolutely incredible here is a satellite picture...

 It is basically a cold weather hurricane. This is a very life threatening situation for the residents of Alaska. Winds from this are sustained at over 70 mph with gusts at or over 100 mph. Extensive tree and power pole damage with widespread power outages likely. It is the "Perfect Storm"/storm of the century. Wave heights will be an astounding 40feet. Alaska will have a storm surge as high as 10 feet in some locations. Not only is there wind and waves, but the chance for heavy snow with blizzard like conditions. Also, a phenomena known as freezing spray will occur. (pic below) This is when water (generally from waves or wind) freezes instantly to a surface. It is a mini ice storm along coasts. Ice can accumulate in inches. This storm's central pressure may reach a staggering 940mb or the equivalent of a category 4 or even 5 hurricane. This storm is very comparable to our super storm last year. This storm brought damaging winds and tornadoes to the area and to eastern half of the United States. The low pressure achieved a strength of 955mb.

Here is a picture from October 26, 2011. It is basically a land hurricane.

Crazy and exciting weather!!!

Showers are beginning to move in... Thunderstorms tonight

Showers are moving to the northeast. This will be the rule for the evening.

A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the southern plains right now. As of right now 5 tornadoes have been reported. 6 were reported yesterday with Reed Timmer (storm chaser) intercepting one in the "Dominator" Link here.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FY4glJCmvs

Now to the severe question for this evening??? As I have said in previous posts, we need instability to make these storms severe. Unfortunately little to no instability is forecast for this evening. A severe threat goes right up to I-57 where the higher instability will be located. As for us, wind gusts of 40mph and rain will be likely. No severe weather is expected, but a storm that can hold together from Illinois could maintain its Strong to Severe nature.

As for tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms will be around for the morning commute. After 10a.m. tomorrow, showers will turn more isolated. Temps of mid 50s to near 60 will be around in the morning. Unfortunately, as the cold front passes through, temps will fall through the day. After school temps look to be in the low 40s.

A brief cool down with a few overnight lows in the mid 20s will occur this week. (Thursday and Friday) This is hard to believe, but we will rebound early next week with temps in the 60s with 70s possible. Also thunderstorm chances return next week. More on this as the time gets closer. (above is the instability snapshot for next Monday. below is the precip for Monday)

Rainfall So Far

I have received .4" of rain so far here at my home.

Scattered rain showers will continue through the evening. With the passage of a warm front, we will stay in the mid 50s overnight into tomorrow morning.

We will see a high temp of over 70º tomorrow. Hard to believe, but it is what it is. An isolated shower is possible in the afternoon-evening.

I will talk about our severe weather threat for Wednesday morning tomorrow on my next blog post. By then, I should have a good idea what the storms are going to do. Until then, good night!

Today..... Severe weather for Wednesday??

Showers will continue to move through the area as a warm front slowly raises to the north. Due to the lack of instability, scattered thunderstorms are not likely today, but an isolated rumble of thunder is possible. Expect a high of around 57 later in the day with an overnight low of around 50.

Severe storms are beginning to look possible early Wednesday morning given heightened instability near 100J/Kg(compared to earlier model runs). The Gulf of Mexico has also opened up for this weather system allowing an abundant supply of moisture for the storm to feed off of. Dew points will be in the low to mid 50s, which is abnormally high for this time of year. This moisture is being transported by the LLJ (Low level jet) LLJ winds will be in the neighborhood of 80-100mph. Shear (winds varying with height) will also be abundant Helicity (or spin in the atmosphere) will be high promoting a better chance of a tornado being formed. An isolated tornado of EF0 strength is not ruled out, but the main threats will be damaging winds. The overall storm mode would be linear (given the high shear). This information points towards a squall line. A squall line can produce damaging winds and an isolated weak tornado. Below is the overall weather picture for Wednesday morning.

Snow from this system will exceed 6" in places from the Great Plains through Northern Michigan and along the U.S. Canadian border.

Stay tuned for updates on the possibility of a heightened risk for severe weather Wednesday morning.

Tonight's Weather..... Severe Chances??

We will see the possibility of showers tonight with the passage of a cold front overnight. Showers look possible anytime after midnight. There are a few showers beginning to show up on radar right now. They are light and moving to the northeast.

Tomorrow showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon. This graph is a picture of 4p.m. tomorrow.

As of right now, there is very weak instability for severe storms Tuesday-Wednesday. Cape values are only maxing out at 50j/kg for our area. If the atmosphere can get to 150j/kg, we will have a better chance at severe weather. There is good wind shear and decent moisture available. If there was severe weather, it would mainly be a damaging wind threat with linear storm segments (squall lines) or multi cell clusters. Along with the damaging wind threat, an isolated EF0-EF1 tornado threat will exist. Mainly for the reason of a highly sheared environment in our area at the time. I will keep everyone up to date as new data comes in.








Snow is still possible later in the month, I will elaborate on this when the time gets closer.

By the way, THANKS to everyone who is viewing this blog. I will do my best to keep you informed about the local and sometimes national weather conditions. I will use this blog as my main weather forecasting outlet.