Tonight: showers and thunderstorms will arrive later this evening. Given the weak instability, a small hailer is possible. The temp will only drop to a low of 50.
The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow in our area. We will have 300-500J/Kg CAPE, high shear, temps in the mid 60s, and some good moisture coming from the gulf. All these ingredients are a good sign for severe weather. The question is, will the instability hold out for our area. There is a very steep drop off a few miles to the north. The further the track of the low north, the better chance for severe weather. All in all, it is going to be close.
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