Today..... Severe weather for Wednesday??

Showers will continue to move through the area as a warm front slowly raises to the north. Due to the lack of instability, scattered thunderstorms are not likely today, but an isolated rumble of thunder is possible. Expect a high of around 57 later in the day with an overnight low of around 50.

Severe storms are beginning to look possible early Wednesday morning given heightened instability near 100J/Kg(compared to earlier model runs). The Gulf of Mexico has also opened up for this weather system allowing an abundant supply of moisture for the storm to feed off of. Dew points will be in the low to mid 50s, which is abnormally high for this time of year. This moisture is being transported by the LLJ (Low level jet) LLJ winds will be in the neighborhood of 80-100mph. Shear (winds varying with height) will also be abundant Helicity (or spin in the atmosphere) will be high promoting a better chance of a tornado being formed. An isolated tornado of EF0 strength is not ruled out, but the main threats will be damaging winds. The overall storm mode would be linear (given the high shear). This information points towards a squall line. A squall line can produce damaging winds and an isolated weak tornado. Below is the overall weather picture for Wednesday morning.

Snow from this system will exceed 6" in places from the Great Plains through Northern Michigan and along the U.S. Canadian border.

Stay tuned for updates on the possibility of a heightened risk for severe weather Wednesday morning.