A High of 61 was achieved today here at the station. A perfect way to end January!!
Wednesday: The first day of February will start decent with temps in the upper 30s to near 40. Skies will be partly cloudy all day with a high temp reaching into the low-mid 50s. Winds will be fairly calm at 3-8mph. As night falls a few more mid-upper level clouds will roll in. Temps will drop into the mid-upper 30s.
Snow???- After hitting 61º today, it is hard to believe we are talking about snow chances, but it is Indiana. Snow looks like a good bet for this weekend. How much you ask, well it is still too early to tell. The models are all over the place with snow totals. Some models suggest no snow and others want to give us up to 4". I will update on snowfall totals as the data become more consistent.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Monday Forecast: Snow Storm on the Horizon???
This next week is going to be very spring like.
Monday: Temps will start the day in the mid-upper 20s. Cloudy skies will be around all day with a 10% chance for rain showers. Temps will soar in the afternoon into the low-mid 50s.Winds will be gusty from the S at 20-25mph gusting to 45mph. Temps will hover around 40 during the evening.
Summary for the rest of the week: We will see temps near 60 for Tuesday with the possibility for thunderstorms. Now for the snowstorm.... There is a chance for a big snowstorm this weekend. This storm may cause travel dangers for the Superbowl. It is still too early to tell when or how much snow will arrive. I will continue to update on the system as more data comes in.
Monday: Temps will start the day in the mid-upper 20s. Cloudy skies will be around all day with a 10% chance for rain showers. Temps will soar in the afternoon into the low-mid 50s.Winds will be gusty from the S at 20-25mph gusting to 45mph. Temps will hover around 40 during the evening.
Summary for the rest of the week: We will see temps near 60 for Tuesday with the possibility for thunderstorms. Now for the snowstorm.... There is a chance for a big snowstorm this weekend. This storm may cause travel dangers for the Superbowl. It is still too early to tell when or how much snow will arrive. I will continue to update on the system as more data comes in.
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Snow Friday Night
More Snow is expected for tomorrow evening into early Saturday morning. Here is the forecast for Friday.
TGIF: After a few flurries during the overnight, temps Friday morning will start the day in the low 30s. Partly cloudy skies will be around for most of day tomorrow. Temps will peak near 40 in the afternoon. Winds will be 10-15 gusting to 25mph. Twilight will see an increase in clouds. These clouds are ahead of a winter system that will bring snow to the area. Snow looks to come in sometime after 9p.m. (lately the snow has been speeding up, so don't be surprised if we see snow starting as early as 7p.m.) Winds will die down to 5-10mph overnight. This won't blow the snow enough to make it hazardous. Temps overnight will be in the low 30s.
Snow Potential...
It looks a little jumbled, but this is what I think based on the latest model runs.
TGIF: After a few flurries during the overnight, temps Friday morning will start the day in the low 30s. Partly cloudy skies will be around for most of day tomorrow. Temps will peak near 40 in the afternoon. Winds will be 10-15 gusting to 25mph. Twilight will see an increase in clouds. These clouds are ahead of a winter system that will bring snow to the area. Snow looks to come in sometime after 9p.m. (lately the snow has been speeding up, so don't be surprised if we see snow starting as early as 7p.m.) Winds will die down to 5-10mph overnight. This won't blow the snow enough to make it hazardous. Temps overnight will be in the low 30s.
Snow Potential...
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Wednesday Forecast
Temps will start in the mid 20s tomorrow morning. Mostly cloudy-Cloudy skies will be around all day, with an increase in clouds during the evening hours. High temps will max out in the upper 30s. Winds will be light at 5-10mph. Rain showers will start after 5 tomorrow and will continue through the evening. Depending on how far north this storm moves, will depend on how much rain we will get. At this time, models are suggesting anywhere from 0-.25” of rain. A few flurries are possible early Thursday morning. There is a steep drop off of the rain totals the farther south you go. Indy will see over 1” of rain tomorrow evening- Thursday.
Monday, January 23, 2012
Tuesday Forecast
After a wild weather weekend, things will tend to calm down overall. So far, 26 tornadoes have been reported in the South so far.
Tuesday: The day will start chilly with temps in the low-mid 20s. Skies will be partly cloudy all day with a few high clouds. Temps will rise in the afternoon into the mid 30s. Winds will be gusty from the W at 10-15mph with gusts between 25-30mph. As night falls, a few clouds will build in ahead of the next weather system. Temps will be in the mid 20s.
Looking ahead: There are no indications of a big storm this week. A storm system will bring a few flurries Wednesday. I will update if anything changes.
Tuesday: The day will start chilly with temps in the low-mid 20s. Skies will be partly cloudy all day with a few high clouds. Temps will rise in the afternoon into the mid 30s. Winds will be gusty from the W at 10-15mph with gusts between 25-30mph. As night falls, a few clouds will build in ahead of the next weather system. Temps will be in the mid 20s.
Looking ahead: There are no indications of a big storm this week. A storm system will bring a few flurries Wednesday. I will update if anything changes.
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Storms Beginning to Fire
There are a few storms in Illinois running parallel with the Indiana border. This is the warm front. Given the high MLCAPE, these storms has enough "fuel" to ignite. These storms will not be severe, but the ones along the cold front will be. Instability is in our area and Illinois right now. The squall line in Illinois will continue to gather intensity as it goes into a more unstable environment. Also, the helicity is high which will allow thunderstorms to rotate. This will promote a weak isolated tornado. The main threats this evening will be damaging winds and an isolated weak tornado.
NEW UPDATE
The Storm Prediction Center has raised the risk of a tornado tonight. This rise in threat is due to higher instability, higher helicity, and dew points will be pushing 50º. Temps will also be a little warmer with temps raising into the mid 50s. These additional ingredients improve our chances for severe weather tonight. Again the main threats are damaging winds, and an isolated tornado. I will continue to update as new info comes in.
UPDATE ON SEVERE THREAT
The Storm Prediction Center has included us in the SLIGHT risk category for tonight. We have an elevated risk for wind damage tonight and a risk for an isolated weak tornado. A MODERATE risk for severe weather has been upgraded in Southern Indiana. Here, there is a higher possibility of a tornado, a very high risk for wind damage, and a risk for large hail. This increase in threat is a direct result of surface CAPE forecast to be farther north. This increase instability means that the thunderstorms will be stronger than they would have been. I believe my thunderstorm map 2 posts ago will hold up. The timing is still the same (between 11-2a.m.)
Meanwhile, places in Dixie Alley will see a high risk for a tornado. Here, strong and long-lived tornadoes are likely.
Meanwhile, places in Dixie Alley will see a high risk for a tornado. Here, strong and long-lived tornadoes are likely.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
New Detailed Update from the Storm Prediction Center
Green-General Thunderstorms (we are included in the wind threat as you can see in the previous set of images.)
Yellow- severe thunderstorms are possible
Red- severe thunderstorms are likely (severe weather outbreak possible).
Pink-High Risk (not shown on the map) High Risks are only issued a few times per year. High Risk means a large severe weather event is likely. High Risks are placed out for public awareness. High Risk means that thunderstorms are capable of destroying life and property.
The last time Indiana was under a high risk would have been in Oct. of 2009 when a squall moved through. It produced a few tornadoes in Indiana and several reports of wind damage.
Check my full forecast of the event in the previous post.
Severe Weather Possible Sunday Evening- Early Monday Morning
A strong low will bring severe storms to a large chunk of the Eastern United States.
There is a marginal chance for severe weather as indicated on the above map from the Storm Prediction Center. We are just north of the Slight Risk or 15%. The black hatched area represents where "significant" severe weather is possible. Below is a detailed analysis of how this storm system is setting up.
Temps will rise nicely ahead of the front. Temps will soar near or a little more than 50º.
This graphic (below) shows instability in the atmosphere. Instability is what fuels thunderstorms. I am predicting MUCAPE as high as 400J/Kg. Places to the south (southern Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee) will see Surface CAPE. High surface CAPE = stronger thunderstorms. Which is why there is a higher threat for severe weather south of here.
The dew points (above picture) are looking good for thunderstorms and some severe weather. The higher the dew point the more moist the environment. If we were in the light green or 50º dew point (forecast may change this) a higher risk for severe weather would have been implemented.
The red indicates an environment with a lot of wind, in this case, it represents low level winds. The higher the low level winds = higher shear, the higher the shear = a more linear storm mode. In this case a squall line looks likely. A squall line is a line of thunderstorms that has many little segments and nodules in it. The segments = high wind while the nodules = rotation or the possibility of weak tornadoes.
This graphic shows low level spinning in the atmosphere. The redder or whiter the area, the more spin. This graphic is helpful in predicting tornadoes. Based on this graphic, there is the possibility of an isolated tornado in the area. If we had more "ingredients" in place, this would be one heck of a tornado outbreak. Places like Kentucky and Tennessee will have these conditions.
Here is what I think the severe weather situation will be. I believe the "SLIGHT" risk will be moved farther northward. I think this because the new models are bringing warmer and more moist air farther north(this air is also known as unstable). This will help fuel thunderstorms.
Here are some radar simulated images from wunderground. Storms will move in under the cover of darkness. I believe the storms will impact the area anytime after 11p.m.
Overall, Kentucky, Tennessee, northern Alabama, and northern Mississippi will see tornadoes. As for us, it is more of a damaging wind threat, but an isolated tornado is possible. I will update as I look over more model data.
Tomorrow up until thunderstorms: The morning will be cold with temps in the low to mid 10's. Temps will then rise all day and night until the passage of the thunderstorms. Temps by 4 should be approaching 40º. It is hard to tell what the high will be, but I will say at or a little above 50º before the thunderstorms arrive. Winds will be from the SE at 10-15mph gusting between 25-30mph.
There is a marginal chance for severe weather as indicated on the above map from the Storm Prediction Center. We are just north of the Slight Risk or 15%. The black hatched area represents where "significant" severe weather is possible. Below is a detailed analysis of how this storm system is setting up.
The dew points (above picture) are looking good for thunderstorms and some severe weather. The higher the dew point the more moist the environment. If we were in the light green or 50º dew point (forecast may change this) a higher risk for severe weather would have been implemented.
Here is what I think the severe weather situation will be. I believe the "SLIGHT" risk will be moved farther northward. I think this because the new models are bringing warmer and more moist air farther north(this air is also known as unstable). This will help fuel thunderstorms.
Overall, Kentucky, Tennessee, northern Alabama, and northern Mississippi will see tornadoes. As for us, it is more of a damaging wind threat, but an isolated tornado is possible. I will update as I look over more model data.
Tomorrow up until thunderstorms: The morning will be cold with temps in the low to mid 10's. Temps will then rise all day and night until the passage of the thunderstorms. Temps by 4 should be approaching 40º. It is hard to tell what the high will be, but I will say at or a little above 50º before the thunderstorms arrive. Winds will be from the SE at 10-15mph gusting between 25-30mph.
Friday, January 20, 2012
Heavy Snow Band
The snow is so heavy, it is registering as a thunderstorm on radar...
Snow will continue through the evening hours. The heavy band is back building over our area. Near 1" per hour rates will continue for 1-2 more hours. Snow (in general) will continue and stop sometime between 2-4a.m. Then flurries are possible after that. The wind is gusting up to 30mph causing a lot of blowing and drifting snow. Drifts up to 2 feet are possible. Mean while in Southern Indiana, heavy freezing rain is falling. Freezing rain is falling and is accumulating quickly. Odon, Indiana has received .1" of freezing rain (this was reported 1 hr. ago the total has likely raised). This area will see up to .3" of ice tonight. "Numerous" accidents have happened in southern Indiana tonight.
I think Attica will receive 3-4" of snow. I currently have 1.5" (hard to tell from blowing and drifting snow). Areas in southern Indiana will see up to .3" of ice, which will make roads impassable and power lines to snap. Tomorrow morning will be rough. If you don't need to go anywhere..don't.
This map shows the travel status of each county. Red (Vigo county) means it is extremely dangerous to travel the roads. You can get a ticket if you drive through a county that has a Red or Warning status. I have a feeling southern Indiana is going to see a lot of Orange and Red by the end of the night. Here is the link to this map....http://www.in.gov/ai/appfiles/dhs-countyMap/dhsCountyMap.html
Snow will continue through the evening hours. The heavy band is back building over our area. Near 1" per hour rates will continue for 1-2 more hours. Snow (in general) will continue and stop sometime between 2-4a.m. Then flurries are possible after that. The wind is gusting up to 30mph causing a lot of blowing and drifting snow. Drifts up to 2 feet are possible. Mean while in Southern Indiana, heavy freezing rain is falling. Freezing rain is falling and is accumulating quickly. Odon, Indiana has received .1" of freezing rain (this was reported 1 hr. ago the total has likely raised). This area will see up to .3" of ice tonight. "Numerous" accidents have happened in southern Indiana tonight.
I think Attica will receive 3-4" of snow. I currently have 1.5" (hard to tell from blowing and drifting snow). Areas in southern Indiana will see up to .3" of ice, which will make roads impassable and power lines to snap. Tomorrow morning will be rough. If you don't need to go anywhere..don't.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Tomorrow's Forecast
Due to some time constraints I am putting together a quick forecast.
We are well on our way to below 0 temps tonight. Not just wind chills, but actual air temperature. The snow that we have now looks like it will blow around a little tomorrow afternoon. High temps will reach into the mid 20s. As night falls the next system will begin to move in. It looks like the system will start to impact our area right as school lets out or a little after. As of right now, we are right on the freeze line. Which means there will be a lot of sleet and freezing rain tomorrow along with some snow. My prediction is Attica/Williamsport will get .5" of snow or less and receive .05-.15" of sleet and freezing rain. I am debating whether to bump up this amount. Any way you slice it, travel will be very dangerous tomorrow evening to and from the basketball games. It will be icy and slippery. If you do go drive slow and leave plenty of room between you and the car in front of you. By the way, I have already decided that I will not go to the game because the conditions will potentially be too dangerous.
We are well on our way to below 0 temps tonight. Not just wind chills, but actual air temperature. The snow that we have now looks like it will blow around a little tomorrow afternoon. High temps will reach into the mid 20s. As night falls the next system will begin to move in. It looks like the system will start to impact our area right as school lets out or a little after. As of right now, we are right on the freeze line. Which means there will be a lot of sleet and freezing rain tomorrow along with some snow. My prediction is Attica/Williamsport will get .5" of snow or less and receive .05-.15" of sleet and freezing rain. I am debating whether to bump up this amount. Any way you slice it, travel will be very dangerous tomorrow evening to and from the basketball games. It will be icy and slippery. If you do go drive slow and leave plenty of room between you and the car in front of you. By the way, I have already decided that I will not go to the game because the conditions will potentially be too dangerous.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Snow for tomorrow
I am thinking in the neighborhood of 1-2". I am leaning towards the 1" area. It will start to snow just before school tomorrow morning. Snow will continue through the day and may be heavy at times. I think there will be be .5"-1" of snow by the end of school. Winds will be gusty at 15-20mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will cause minor drifting snow to occur.
Tomorrow will start snowy with temps holding in the mid-upper 20s. Temps will tend to stay in this range all day. As night falls, temps will fall like a rock into the mid-low teens. The snow will end at or just a little after nightfall.
UPDATE: The latest model run wants to bring in more snow. I will bump up the total forecast to 1.5-2" by tomorrow evening.
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Tomorrow will start snowy with temps holding in the mid-upper 20s. Temps will tend to stay in this range all day. As night falls, temps will fall like a rock into the mid-low teens. The snow will end at or just a little after nightfall.
UPDATE: The latest model run wants to bring in more snow. I will bump up the total forecast to 1.5-2" by tomorrow evening.
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Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Tomorrow Snow?
An unusually active day in Indiana. There have been 3 confirmed reports of tornadoes. The strongest being an EF1. All 3 tornadoes were in Southern Indiana. Small hail occurred here at the house around 4a.m. It is now snowing to top it all off. We literally have had it all.
Snow flurries will continue through the night with up to .25" of accumulation. This will promote a few slick spots for the morning commute.
Wednesday: Temps will start the day cool in the mid teens. If some snow can accumulate the low may drop into the low teens. The day will be partly cloudy with clouds building in after nightfall. Highs will top out at or near 32º. Winds will be from the WNW transitioning from the S at 10-15mph. Gusts up to 35mph are possible. Snow may start late Wednesday night. There looks to be a little more moisture with this next system. We will likely get more snow from this next system. Early indications are in the range of .5-1". I will post a snow accumulation map if needed tomorrow.
After Thursday the next chance for snow looks to be Saturday and Sunday. Still too early to tell how much snow from these systems. There will be a chance for thunderstorms early next week as temps soar up to 50º.
Snow flurries will continue through the night with up to .25" of accumulation. This will promote a few slick spots for the morning commute.
Wednesday: Temps will start the day cool in the mid teens. If some snow can accumulate the low may drop into the low teens. The day will be partly cloudy with clouds building in after nightfall. Highs will top out at or near 32º. Winds will be from the WNW transitioning from the S at 10-15mph. Gusts up to 35mph are possible. Snow may start late Wednesday night. There looks to be a little more moisture with this next system. We will likely get more snow from this next system. Early indications are in the range of .5-1". I will post a snow accumulation map if needed tomorrow.
After Thursday the next chance for snow looks to be Saturday and Sunday. Still too early to tell how much snow from these systems. There will be a chance for thunderstorms early next week as temps soar up to 50º.
Possible Tornado
Easy to see this couplet just north of Bedford. Bedford is located in Southern Indiana.
Monday, January 16, 2012
Thunderstorms Late Tonight Early Tomorrow Morning
Thunderstorms are beginning to fire in eastern Missouri.Judging by the speed of the system. I think the rain/storms will be here sometime after 2a.m. Storms will not be severe, however small hail and winds up to 40mph will be possible.
Thunnderstorms???
Highs will top out at 53 today as spring like air mass moves in. Given shear and some CAPE, isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening. There is a marginal severe threat for Southern Indiana. Isolated hail is the main threat there. Rain/thunderstorms look to start shortly after nightfall tonight. (6-8p.m.) Temps tonight will hover in the mid to upper 40s. Colder air will move in tomorrow. Minor accumulations are expected. More on this later.
Sunday, January 15, 2012
Thunderstorms!!
I don't have time for a full post, but a few rumbles of thunder will be possible tomorrow. Rain will start in the afternoon. Given some CAPE a few rumbles of thunder look possible. Update on our snow potential tomorrow.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Tomorrow's Forecast..........More Snow??
I measured 3.6" here at my home. The official measurement for Attica is also 3.6" of snow. Places in northern Indiana saw as much as 9" (largest total I could find) in Elkhart, IN. This was thanks to lake effect. Go here for complete totals in the area....... http://blogs.wlfi.com/2012/01/13/snowfall-totals-4/
This evening will be very cold. The lowest temps of the season so far will occur tonight. Given the snow pack and the wind I expect temps to bottom out near 7. The winds will make this number feel even colder. Wind chills will be 5 below (perhaps lower) at times.
Saturday: The day will start cold with temps around 10 to start the day. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy all day long. A few flurries are possible Friday morning. Little to no accumulation is expected. Temps will struggle to top 20 by Friday afternoon. Winds will be from the West at 5-10 gusting to 15mph. This will cause minor blowing and drifting snow to occur. As night falls, clouds will stick around, winds will stay the same, and temps will be in the mid teens.
A look ahead: There are several chances for snow this week. The biggest looks to be Thursday afternoon-Friday morning (1-3"). I will keep everyone up to date on snow chances. In the mean time, it is time for bed.
This evening will be very cold. The lowest temps of the season so far will occur tonight. Given the snow pack and the wind I expect temps to bottom out near 7. The winds will make this number feel even colder. Wind chills will be 5 below (perhaps lower) at times.
Saturday: The day will start cold with temps around 10 to start the day. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy all day long. A few flurries are possible Friday morning. Little to no accumulation is expected. Temps will struggle to top 20 by Friday afternoon. Winds will be from the West at 5-10 gusting to 15mph. This will cause minor blowing and drifting snow to occur. As night falls, clouds will stick around, winds will stay the same, and temps will be in the mid teens.
A look ahead: There are several chances for snow this week. The biggest looks to be Thursday afternoon-Friday morning (1-3"). I will keep everyone up to date on snow chances. In the mean time, it is time for bed.
Snow Totals
It was very hard to measure how much snow we actually got. Drifts were as high as 1.5' . I measured spots between 3.5-3.7". Based on this I am going with the average of 3.6" of snow. I will have other snow fall totals posted on here a little later. If you have snow fall totals, message me on here or on facebook.
Tonight will be very cold. This snow pack will lower temperatures dramatically. I will let you know how cold later today. Spoiler: We will definitely be in the single digits.
Tonight will be very cold. This snow pack will lower temperatures dramatically. I will let you know how cold later today. Spoiler: We will definitely be in the single digits.
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Approaching 3.5"
We are approaching 3.5" a little after midnight. We may see up to 5" by the end of this event. Winds will continue to be gusty all night. This will cause blowing and drifting snow. Drifts as high as 2' are possible. The temps will be so cold tomorrow, that the salt will have a very hard time of actually working. Highs will struggle to get to 20. Snow and ice will melt on the roadways slower than usual. Travel tomorrow morning will be treacherous. Be careful driving if you have to travel.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Here we go!!!
This will potentially be the biggest snowfall so far this season... here is a look at my snowfall prediction.
10" may happen to the north given some lake enhancement. The models keep giving us more and more snow for the area. I am going to stay with 2-3" for the Attica area. Don't be surprised if there is 4" on the ground by Friday morning.
Thursday: Tomorrow will start with the possibility of a few flurries. Temps will be in the low 30s. Temps will fall through the entire day. Snow is expected to arrive sometime between 8-10a.m. Snow will be heavy at times through the day. By the time school lets out (assuming we get out normal time) there should be about an inch on the ground. As night falls, snow will continue. Winds will pick up overnight. Winds will be from the WNW at 20-25mph with gusts up to 40mph. This will cause the snow to blow and drift around. With 2-4" of snow, drifts up to 1-1.5' are likely. Also, with temps in the upper teens to low 20s and with gusts as high as 40mph, wind chills as low as -5 are likely. Friday morning will be rough for commuting.
10" may happen to the north given some lake enhancement. The models keep giving us more and more snow for the area. I am going to stay with 2-3" for the Attica area. Don't be surprised if there is 4" on the ground by Friday morning.
Thursday: Tomorrow will start with the possibility of a few flurries. Temps will be in the low 30s. Temps will fall through the entire day. Snow is expected to arrive sometime between 8-10a.m. Snow will be heavy at times through the day. By the time school lets out (assuming we get out normal time) there should be about an inch on the ground. As night falls, snow will continue. Winds will pick up overnight. Winds will be from the WNW at 20-25mph with gusts up to 40mph. This will cause the snow to blow and drift around. With 2-4" of snow, drifts up to 1-1.5' are likely. Also, with temps in the upper teens to low 20s and with gusts as high as 40mph, wind chills as low as -5 are likely. Friday morning will be rough for commuting.
Significant Changes to Forecast
Due to the need of a lot of forecast tweaking, I will need to change my snowfall map later today. I will try to have the new snowfall map up by 6 tonight. I am thinking 2-3", but I will finalize this later tonight.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Tomorrow............Changes to Forecast
It looks like I will change my snowfall prediction for Thursday. I will wait until tomorrow to put up a final snowfall prediction.
Wednesday: Temps will start the day in the mid 30s. Rain will begin to arrive mid-late morning. Rain will continue for most of the day. Highs will be in the low 50s. As night falls rain will continue. Temps will be in the high 30s and falling through the evening.
Wednesday: Temps will start the day in the mid 30s. Rain will begin to arrive mid-late morning. Rain will continue for most of the day. Highs will be in the low 50s. As night falls rain will continue. Temps will be in the high 30s and falling through the evening.
Monday, January 9, 2012
Snowfall Accumulation
Here is the preliminary forecast..........
I will most likely change this map within the next few days. The models are still in disagreement with the exact track of the storm systems.
I will most likely change this map within the next few days. The models are still in disagreement with the exact track of the storm systems.
Today-Tuesday.................Snow???
Rest of Today: After a low of 22 this morning, we are well on our way to a high of 50 today. Skies will generally clear for the rest of today. Winds will be from the SW at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph. A few clouds will be around for the evening as temps will be in the mid 30s.
Tuesday: The day will start mild with temps in the upper 20s to low 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy all day. Temps in the afternoon will rise into the low 50. Winds will be light at 5-10mph from the S. As night falls a few clouds will be around as the temp will be in the low-mid 30s.
Snow: Recent models all agree on some amount of snow. The timing looks to be during the day on Thursday. After 1 or 2 more model runs, I will post a snow total prediction on my blog. I will try to have one tonight, if not tonight, I will put one up tomorrow.
United States Right Now: Severe storms are in the south today mainly in Texas and Louisiana. Tornado warnings were issued, but no touchdowns have been reported. On the western side of Texas, a winter storm warning is in effect. West Texas may see up to a foot of snow. This storm system will bring rain and snow to our area Thursday.
Tuesday: The day will start mild with temps in the upper 20s to low 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy all day. Temps in the afternoon will rise into the low 50. Winds will be light at 5-10mph from the S. As night falls a few clouds will be around as the temp will be in the low-mid 30s.
Snow: Recent models all agree on some amount of snow. The timing looks to be during the day on Thursday. After 1 or 2 more model runs, I will post a snow total prediction on my blog. I will try to have one tonight, if not tonight, I will put one up tomorrow.
United States Right Now: Severe storms are in the south today mainly in Texas and Louisiana. Tornado warnings were issued, but no touchdowns have been reported. On the western side of Texas, a winter storm warning is in effect. West Texas may see up to a foot of snow. This storm system will bring rain and snow to our area Thursday.
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Tonight-Sunday...................Snow Chances???
Tonight: Skies will be mostly clear for the evening. A few high clouds look to move in later this evening. Temps will be in the lower 30s through midnight. Winds will be light from the North.
Sunday: The morning will start with a few clouds and temps will be in the upper 20s. Clouds will increase in the afternoon to mostly cloudy skies before nightfall. High temps will reach the mid 40s. Winds will be light and variable with gusts only reaching 10mph. As night falls, mostly cloudy skies will dominate the area. Temps will stay in the mid 30s for the evening hours.
Chance for Snow: The chance for snow Thursday has went down drastically. Models are bringing in warmer air which will make it an all rain event. Here is the big picture....
Right now, it looks like a rain event for Wednesday-Thursday. Rain amounts look to be in the neighborhood of .5". I will let you know if anything changes in the forecast.
Sunday: The morning will start with a few clouds and temps will be in the upper 20s. Clouds will increase in the afternoon to mostly cloudy skies before nightfall. High temps will reach the mid 40s. Winds will be light and variable with gusts only reaching 10mph. As night falls, mostly cloudy skies will dominate the area. Temps will stay in the mid 30s for the evening hours.
Chance for Snow: The chance for snow Thursday has went down drastically. Models are bringing in warmer air which will make it an all rain event. Here is the big picture....
December 2011
Here is a look at December 2011.........
More Details Soon........
| Attica,IN(5Miles SW West Point) | Tyler Snider | ||||
| December 2011 | |||||
| High | Low | Actual Avg. | Precip. | Comments | |
| 12/01/11 | 45.4 | 23.4 | 34.4 | 0 | |
| 12/02/11 | 48.4 | 28.8 | 38.6 | 0 | |
| 12/03/11 | 57.1 | 35 | 46.05 | 0.04 | |
| 12/04/11 | 52.5 | 37.2 | 44.85 | 0.59 | |
| 12/05/11 | 40.1 | 35.6 | 37.85 | 0.37 | |
| 12/06/11 | 36.8 | 26.8 | 31.8 | 0 | |
| 12/07/11 | 38.4 | 22.2 | 30.3 | 0 | |
| 12/08/11 | 38.9 | 21.3 | 30.1 | 0 | |
| 12/09/11 | 33.6 | 19.8 | 26.7 | 0 | .3” snow |
| 12/10/11 | 30.7 | 11.7 | 21.2 | 0 | |
| 12/11/11 | 41.5 | 20 | 30.75 | 0 | |
| 12/12/11 | 48.3 | 19.6 | 33.95 | 0 | |
| 12/13/11 | 44.2 | 30.3 | 37.25 | 0.04 | |
| 12/14/11 | 55.9 | 41.7 | 48.8 | 0.95 | |
| 12/15/11 | 58.3 | 33.4 | 45.85 | 0.5 | |
| 12/16/11 | 39.4 | 23.5 | 31.45 | 0 | |
| 12/17/11 | 38.9 | 23.8 | 31.35 | 0 | trace of snow |
| 12/18/11 | 47.5 | 22.1 | 34.8 | 0 | |
| 12/19/11 | 54.5 | 40.2 | 47.35 | 0.09 | |
| 12/20/11 | 45.8 | 36.7 | 41.25 | 0.45 | |
| 12/21/11 | 47.3 | 41 | 44.15 | 0.04 | |
| 12/22/11 | 43.3 | 32 | 37.65 | 0.01 | |
| 12/23/11 | 40.9 | 28.7 | 34.8 | 0 | |
| 12/24/11 | 40.8 | 23.8 | 32.3 | 0 | |
| 12/25/11 | 46.2 | 26.5 | 36.35 | 0 | |
| 12/26/11 | 46.7 | 22.8 | 34.75 | 0 | |
| 12/27/11 | 37.2 | 32.8 | 35 | 0 | 2” of snow |
| 12/28/11 | 36.9 | 20.4 | 28.65 | 0 | |
| 12/29/11 | 52.3 | 32.5 | 42.4 | 0 | |
| 12/30/11 | 48 | 37.8 | 42.9 | 0.55 | |
| 12/31/11 | 41.1 | 35.2 | 38.15 | 0 | |
| 43.45 | 28.6 | 36.025 | 3.63 | 2.3” of snow, 3.8” for the winter season so far: 6 days above 50º | |
| Normal | 36.87 | 20.87 | 28.87 | 2.51 | |
| Departure | 6.58 | 7.73 | 7.155 | 1.12 |
More Details Soon........
Friday, January 6, 2012
Game Forecast
I only have enough time for a quick forecast. More on Saturday later tonight.
Game Forecast: If you are going to the game, it will be nice with temps in the high 40s at game time. Temps by the end of the game will be in the low 40s.
More on Saturday and will we have snow mid-late next week. It's all on my next blog post later tonight.
Game Forecast: If you are going to the game, it will be nice with temps in the high 40s at game time. Temps by the end of the game will be in the low 40s.
More on Saturday and will we have snow mid-late next week. It's all on my next blog post later tonight.
Warm Day
The high temp for today will be 56. Get out and enjoy this weather before temps take a tumble next week. I will have the forecast for the game tonight along with a forecast for at least half the weekend soon.
I am going to try to get a few holes in before the game tonight!! :)
I am going to try to get a few holes in before the game tonight!! :)
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Friday Forecast.........Arctic Blast
The only change I will make to my forecast for today would be the temperature. See previous post for full forecast. It is already in the mid 40s so I expect a high of 49 for today.
Friday: Friday will start the day mild (temps for tomorrow morning will be at our normal high for this time of year) with temps in the low 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy with a SW wind at 10-15mph. High temps will max out in the mid 50s. Skies will become partly-mostly sunny in the afternoon. Winds will be from the WSW at 13-18mph with gusts up to 30mph. Skies will begin to clear shortly after nightfall. A cold front will bring a narrow line of clouds with the chance for a few sprinkles. Winds will shift overnight from the W and then gradually from the NW as a cold front moves through. Temps will be in the upper 30s to low 40s before the passage of the cold front. Shortly after, the temps will fall into the mid 30s before midnight. The cold front is expected to pass shortly before midnight.
Next Thursday: After spring like weather, winter will try to take hold in our area late next week. This time, winter may win. After the passage of a storm system next Thursday, temps will tank as an Arctic Blast moves into the area. Highs will struggle into the mid 20s with low temps easily in the single digits few several days. Only 1 (maybe 2) day will be above freezing between Jan. 12-20. This will likely be the longest cold snap of the winter thus far. Indications say this cold snap may linger past Jan. 20. Due to limited data as an amateur meteorologist I can't access anything past 384 hours in advance. A lot of data sites require annual fees to access long-term forecasts.
Friday: Friday will start the day mild (temps for tomorrow morning will be at our normal high for this time of year) with temps in the low 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy with a SW wind at 10-15mph. High temps will max out in the mid 50s. Skies will become partly-mostly sunny in the afternoon. Winds will be from the WSW at 13-18mph with gusts up to 30mph. Skies will begin to clear shortly after nightfall. A cold front will bring a narrow line of clouds with the chance for a few sprinkles. Winds will shift overnight from the W and then gradually from the NW as a cold front moves through. Temps will be in the upper 30s to low 40s before the passage of the cold front. Shortly after, the temps will fall into the mid 30s before midnight. The cold front is expected to pass shortly before midnight.
Next Thursday: After spring like weather, winter will try to take hold in our area late next week. This time, winter may win. After the passage of a storm system next Thursday, temps will tank as an Arctic Blast moves into the area. Highs will struggle into the mid 20s with low temps easily in the single digits few several days. Only 1 (maybe 2) day will be above freezing between Jan. 12-20. This will likely be the longest cold snap of the winter thus far. Indications say this cold snap may linger past Jan. 20. Due to limited data as an amateur meteorologist I can't access anything past 384 hours in advance. A lot of data sites require annual fees to access long-term forecasts.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Warm up...........Big Snowfalls on the Horizon???
As most of the winter has already been, a warm up is scheduled for Friday when we will see temps at or above 50. Temps will continue to be above normal at least for the next week. No big Arctic blast is seen within the next week.
Take a look at this photo from space. You can clearly see the Lake Effect snow in Northern Indiana and Michigan. Up to 15" fell in parts of Michigan.
Today: Temps will top out at 43. Skies will remain mostly clear for the rest of the day today. Winds will be from the WSW switching to from the WNW at 10-15mph gusting up to 25mph.
Tonight: A few clouds will build in ahead of a disturbance. I will go with a partly cloudy wording. Temps will drop into the upper 20s for the evening hours.
Thursday: The morning will be chilly with temps in the mid 20s to start. Skies will be partly cloudy all day with a SSW west at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph. Temps will rise in the afternoon into the mid 40s. As night falls, the temp will drop into the low 30s. Skies will remain partly cloudy through the evening.
Friday will warm up into the lower 50s. (More details in the next post)
Any Snow Storms on the horizon?
There doesn't appear to be any major storms on the horizon. A couple of Alberta clippers look likely. Next Thursday looks promising for 1-2" of snow, but I will wait on more model runs before I make a call later next week. Past that, another clipper with 1-2" looks possible next Saturday 1-14-11.
There is one that really catches my eye for Jan. 16-18. If it were to happen tomorrow we could be looking at 3-6". This is still far out and the forecast will likely change. More on this when the time gets closer.
Today: Temps will top out at 43. Skies will remain mostly clear for the rest of the day today. Winds will be from the WSW switching to from the WNW at 10-15mph gusting up to 25mph.
Tonight: A few clouds will build in ahead of a disturbance. I will go with a partly cloudy wording. Temps will drop into the upper 20s for the evening hours.
Thursday: The morning will be chilly with temps in the mid 20s to start. Skies will be partly cloudy all day with a SSW west at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph. Temps will rise in the afternoon into the mid 40s. As night falls, the temp will drop into the low 30s. Skies will remain partly cloudy through the evening.
Friday will warm up into the lower 50s. (More details in the next post)
Any Snow Storms on the horizon?
There doesn't appear to be any major storms on the horizon. A couple of Alberta clippers look likely. Next Thursday looks promising for 1-2" of snow, but I will wait on more model runs before I make a call later next week. Past that, another clipper with 1-2" looks possible next Saturday 1-14-11.
There is one that really catches my eye for Jan. 16-18. If it were to happen tomorrow we could be looking at 3-6". This is still far out and the forecast will likely change. More on this when the time gets closer.
Monday, January 2, 2012
2011 Severe Weather Video
I should have posted this back on New Years Day, but oh well. Here is a look back at the severe weather events from 2011.
I figured I would embed the video and make it easier to watch.
REMINDER: Send me your pics of winter 2011-2012. I will use them for my next video coming out in Spring 2012.
I figured I would embed the video and make it easier to watch.
REMINDER: Send me your pics of winter 2011-2012. I will use them for my next video coming out in Spring 2012.
Global Warming???
Many of you think global warming is the cause for our winter being so warm. You would be half right.
The ozone has its warm spots and cool spots. Believe it or not, the ozone layer above us is really cold. The colder the ozone layer the warmer our area becomes. Here is a warm spot example. Bangladesh has recorded an all time low of 48º. This doesn't sound that cold, but this area is located in the topics. India which is right next to Bangladesh has also recorded record low temps.
Is this normal? Partially. People are saying we haven't had too much snow this year and they are right. It is not unusual to see this small amount of snow at this time in the season (3.9"). It is also not unusual to see temps up in the 40s and 50s (We will see the 50s again later this week)
When will winter set in? The warming trend for the ozone layer in our area is set to start mid-late month. During this time, we will see temps in the single digits and more snow. Don't worry, we will see our fair share of moderate snow falls and and bone chilling cold this season. After all, we are only a few days into winter.
The ozone has its warm spots and cool spots. Believe it or not, the ozone layer above us is really cold. The colder the ozone layer the warmer our area becomes. Here is a warm spot example. Bangladesh has recorded an all time low of 48º. This doesn't sound that cold, but this area is located in the topics. India which is right next to Bangladesh has also recorded record low temps.
Is this normal? Partially. People are saying we haven't had too much snow this year and they are right. It is not unusual to see this small amount of snow at this time in the season (3.9"). It is also not unusual to see temps up in the 40s and 50s (We will see the 50s again later this week)
When will winter set in? The warming trend for the ozone layer in our area is set to start mid-late month. During this time, we will see temps in the single digits and more snow. Don't worry, we will see our fair share of moderate snow falls and and bone chilling cold this season. After all, we are only a few days into winter.
Flurries for the Day
Flurries will last through the rest of today and through the evening hours. Accumulations will be minor with up to a half inch possible. Temps will hover in the mid to low 20s for the rest of the day with a WNW wind at 20-25mph with gusts up to 45mph.
Tonight: Temps and wind chills will plummet in the upper teens with wind chills near 0º Flurries will linger through the evening hours . Winds will be from the WNW at 15-20mph gusting to near 35mph.
Tomorrow: Temps will potentially start at the lowest levels of winter so far. Temps will start the day around 10º. Wind chills at times will be below 0º. A few flurries may linger through mid day with little to no more accumulation. Temps will rise in the afternoon into the mid 20s. Winds will be from the WNW at 10-15mph diminishing to 5-10mph by nightfall. Skies will clear for the afternoon Tuesday before clouds build in before nightfall.
Tonight: Temps and wind chills will plummet in the upper teens with wind chills near 0º Flurries will linger through the evening hours . Winds will be from the WNW at 15-20mph gusting to near 35mph.
Tomorrow: Temps will potentially start at the lowest levels of winter so far. Temps will start the day around 10º. Wind chills at times will be below 0º. A few flurries may linger through mid day with little to no more accumulation. Temps will rise in the afternoon into the mid 20s. Winds will be from the WNW at 10-15mph diminishing to 5-10mph by nightfall. Skies will clear for the afternoon Tuesday before clouds build in before nightfall.
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