Severe Weather Possible Sunday Evening- Early Monday Morning

A strong low will bring severe storms to a large chunk of the Eastern United States.

There is a marginal chance for severe weather as indicated on the above map from the Storm Prediction Center. We are just north of the Slight Risk or 15%. The black hatched area represents where "significant" severe weather is possible. Below is a detailed analysis of how this storm system is setting up.

Temps will rise nicely ahead of the front. Temps will soar near or a little more than 50º.

This graphic (below) shows instability in the atmosphere. Instability is what fuels thunderstorms. I am predicting MUCAPE as high as 400J/Kg. Places to the south (southern Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee) will see Surface CAPE. High surface CAPE = stronger thunderstorms. Which is why there is a higher threat for severe weather south of here.

The dew points (above picture) are looking good for thunderstorms and some severe weather. The higher the dew point the more moist the environment. If we were in the light green or 50º dew point (forecast may change this) a higher risk for severe weather would have been implemented.

 The red indicates an environment with a lot of wind, in this case, it represents low level winds. The higher the low level winds = higher shear, the higher the shear = a more linear storm mode. In this case a squall line looks likely. A squall line is a line of thunderstorms that has many little segments and nodules in it. The segments = high wind while the nodules = rotation or the possibility of weak tornadoes.

This graphic shows low level spinning in the atmosphere. The redder or whiter the area, the more spin. This graphic is helpful in predicting tornadoes. Based on this graphic, there is the possibility of an isolated tornado in the area. If we had more "ingredients" in place, this would be one heck of a tornado outbreak. Places like Kentucky and Tennessee will have these conditions.

Here is what I think the severe weather situation will be. I believe the "SLIGHT" risk will be moved farther northward. I think this because the new models are bringing warmer and more moist air farther north(this air is also known as unstable). This will help fuel thunderstorms.

Here are some radar simulated images from wunderground. Storms will move in under the cover of darkness. I believe the storms will impact the area anytime after 11p.m.

Overall, Kentucky, Tennessee, northern Alabama, and northern Mississippi will see tornadoes. As for us, it is more of a damaging wind threat, but an isolated tornado is possible. I will update as I look over more model data.

Tomorrow up until thunderstorms: The morning will be cold with temps in the low to mid 10's. Temps will then rise all day and night until the passage of the thunderstorms. Temps by 4 should be approaching 40º. It is hard to tell what the high will be, but I will say at or a little above 50º before the thunderstorms arrive. Winds will be from the SE at 10-15mph gusting between 25-30mph.