Today: Clouds will be around for the rest of the day today. Highs will top out near 40º. Winds will be from the S at 5-10mph gusting to near 20mph. Clouds will stick around for the evening with temps staying in the upper 30s to near 40º.
Sunday: Temps will start the day around 40º and fall through the day. Rain showers will start in the morning and will last through the early afternoon hours. As the temps fall this rain may changeover to sleet/freezing rain and possibly snow. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. Snow showers should end around 2p.m. Winds will be from the SW to start the day transitioning from the W at 25-30mph gusting over 45mph. As night falls skies will clear allowing the temps to fall in the low 30s to upper 20s. Wind chills will fall below 10º at times.
Major Lake Effect snow can be expected for far northern Indiana. Snow totals will be as high as 15" with higher amounts possible. Happy New Year!!
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Tonight-Friday Forecast
Rest of Tonight: Clouds will begin to pick up after midnight as an Alberta Clipper begins to move in. Temps will be in the mid-upper 30s for the evening. Winds will be from the S at 5-10 mph.
Friday: Rain is likely to begin early tomorrow morning. Temps will be in the low 40s. Given some instability, don't be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder tomorrow afternoon. Temps will rise into the high 40s to near 50. Rain and thunder will last all day with a wind from the SSW at 20-25mph with gusts to 40mph. Rain amounts should be around .1" with more in thunderstorms.
Friday: Rain is likely to begin early tomorrow morning. Temps will be in the low 40s. Given some instability, don't be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder tomorrow afternoon. Temps will rise into the high 40s to near 50. Rain and thunder will last all day with a wind from the SSW at 20-25mph with gusts to 40mph. Rain amounts should be around .1" with more in thunderstorms.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Thursday Forecast
Thursday: A clipper will skim by early Thursday morning I don't expect much of anything from this. Light rain/snow would be the best possibility. Chance of precip. 25%. Temps in the morning will be in the low 30s. Clouds will be around for most of the day with a high temp maxing out in the low 40s. Towards late afternoon and early evening, skies will clear out. Temps overnight will be in the mid 30s.
Past Snow: I received 2" of snow here at the house. Attica officially received 1.5", Lafayette around 2", Williamsport 2", places up towards Ft. Wayne received 5" of snow from this past system.
As of right now, there aren't any big snows in the forecast. I will let you know if anything changes.
Past Snow: I received 2" of snow here at the house. Attica officially received 1.5", Lafayette around 2", Williamsport 2", places up towards Ft. Wayne received 5" of snow from this past system.
As of right now, there aren't any big snows in the forecast. I will let you know if anything changes.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Video of 2011 Severe Weather Season
See all the pics from this past Severe Weather Season here.......
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SKXgYkZBmc
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SKXgYkZBmc
Monday, December 26, 2011
Hourly Forecast
Rain is to our southwest right now. This is moving northeast and will impact our area after 10p.m.
Starting time for snow: I am thinking that a rain snow mix will make its way into the area sometime between 11-1a.m. with all snow between 1-3a.m.
Duration: I think the snow will come down for a good 5-7hours. During this time, there may be brief periods of heavy snow with rates at or near 1" per hour. Due to temperatures close to freezing, large wet snowflakes will fall.
End: Snow should exit after 10a.m. with the exception of a few flurries. Temps will be above freezing (high of 39º) When the snow ends, the winds will crank up. Winds will be from the NE at 15-25mph with gusts to 40mph.
Overall: Attica will see 1-2" of snow while places out east (where it will snow longer) will receive up to 6".
Starting time for snow: I am thinking that a rain snow mix will make its way into the area sometime between 11-1a.m. with all snow between 1-3a.m.
Duration: I think the snow will come down for a good 5-7hours. During this time, there may be brief periods of heavy snow with rates at or near 1" per hour. Due to temperatures close to freezing, large wet snowflakes will fall.
End: Snow should exit after 10a.m. with the exception of a few flurries. Temps will be above freezing (high of 39º) When the snow ends, the winds will crank up. Winds will be from the NE at 15-25mph with gusts to 40mph.
Overall: Attica will see 1-2" of snow while places out east (where it will snow longer) will receive up to 6".
Updated Snowfall Map
Here is my snowfall prediction for Indiana:
Hour by hour forecast will be up soon....
Sunday, December 25, 2011
Snowfall Accumulation Forecast
Based on the latest model run, moderate snow will come down Tuesday morning in the Attica area for 2-3 hours. This will allow up to an inch of snow to accumulate.
I have highlighted an area where moderate snow is forecast to come down. This barely includes us. If later model runs can shift the snow initiation a little farther west, we may see 1-2" of snow. Until then, here is my snowfall prediction based on latest model data. This will probably change by tonight or tomorrow. I will change my totals as more models come in.
Again, this is just a preliminary forecast. This gives you an idea at what we may see. I will update either late tonight or tomorrow. The next update will also include a more detailed forecast. Merry Christmas everybody!!!
Friday, December 23, 2011
New Outlook Change........SNOW???
Models are bringing a storm system that has trended to our south into our area for Monday night into Tuesday. Early indications are saying rain to start then switching to all snow. We may see some measurable on Tuesday morning. Models are saying 2-3" of snow. The track of the low is perfect for snow in our area. Accumulations higher than 2-3" may be possible with this track. We will have to wait and see if this track holds up....
The heavy snow band is always a few miles away from the rain/snow line. Given this track 2-3" of snow is definitely possible. We will have to wait and see if this holds up.
Now - Christmas + Bi County Forecast
Today: The rest of today will be full of sun with a high around 39º. Winds will be from the SSW at 5-10mph. As night falls, a few high clouds will move in. The temp will be around 32º during the evening hours. A few clouds will move in overnight
Bi County Forecast: For those of you going to the Bi-County basketball tournament tonight, here is the forecast. Temps will be around 33º at game time with a few clouds beginning to move in. Winds will be light at 5-10mph. This will make the temp feel lower than it actually is AKA the wind chill (30º).
Christmas Eve: Christmas Eve morning will start clear as clouds from the previous night will exit before sun rise. Temps will be cool with temps in the mid-high 20s. Skies will be clear all day with a temp maxing out to 40º. Winds will be from the SSW at 10-15 mph. A few clouds will be around for the overnight hours. Temps will be in the high 20s-low 30s.
Christmas: Unfortunately, there will be No White Christmas this year :( Christmas morning will be mostly sunny with temps in the mid 20s. Mostly sunny skies will last all day as a temp maxes out in the low 40s. It will be a windy day as winds from the W will be at 20-25mph. Gusts as high as 40mph are possible. As night falls, skies will clear of any clouds. Temps will fall into the high 20s.
Next Chance for Snow/Rain: The next system looks to move in around New Years Day. There looks to be a good chance for snow. It is too early to tell how much or if it will be all snow Until then, the pattern looks dry with highs in the low-mid 40s.
Bi County Forecast: For those of you going to the Bi-County basketball tournament tonight, here is the forecast. Temps will be around 33º at game time with a few clouds beginning to move in. Winds will be light at 5-10mph. This will make the temp feel lower than it actually is AKA the wind chill (30º).
Christmas Eve: Christmas Eve morning will start clear as clouds from the previous night will exit before sun rise. Temps will be cool with temps in the mid-high 20s. Skies will be clear all day with a temp maxing out to 40º. Winds will be from the SSW at 10-15 mph. A few clouds will be around for the overnight hours. Temps will be in the high 20s-low 30s.
Christmas: Unfortunately, there will be No White Christmas this year :( Christmas morning will be mostly sunny with temps in the mid 20s. Mostly sunny skies will last all day as a temp maxes out in the low 40s. It will be a windy day as winds from the W will be at 20-25mph. Gusts as high as 40mph are possible. As night falls, skies will clear of any clouds. Temps will fall into the high 20s.
Next Chance for Snow/Rain: The next system looks to move in around New Years Day. There looks to be a good chance for snow. It is too early to tell how much or if it will be all snow Until then, the pattern looks dry with highs in the low-mid 40s.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Tonight-Tomorrow
Tonight: A few showers will move in overnight. Not too much in the way of rain is expected.(less than .1") Temps tonight will dip down into the upper 30s.
Friday: Temps will start the day in the low 30s. Skies will be mostly clear all day long with a high temp maxing out at 38º. Winds will be from the N at 10-15 mph Winds will shift in the afternoon/evening from the West. The evening will be mostly clear with a temp dropping into the low 30s.
Friday: Temps will start the day in the low 30s. Skies will be mostly clear all day long with a high temp maxing out at 38º. Winds will be from the N at 10-15 mph Winds will shift in the afternoon/evening from the West. The evening will be mostly clear with a temp dropping into the low 30s.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Wednesday Forecast and White Christmas Potential
Wednesday: Tomorrow will start decent with temps in the mid 40s. Rain showers will be around for most of the day with rain exiting by late afternoon. Temps will hold in the mid 40s all day. Winds will be from the W at 10-15 gusting to 30mph. Winds will shift from the SW after nightfall.
Plains Winter Storm: Up to 15" of snow fell in Kansas from latest winter storm. Drifts were 4-5' tall. Kansas and other surrounding states impacted by this storm will have a White Christmas.
White Christmas: As for us, a White Christmas does not look likely. Rain looks possible that day with about a .1". New models are taking precipitation completely out of the forecast. I will need 1 or 2 more model runs to confirm this. The day will start in the high 30s and will fall through the day. To be an official White Christmas, you must have 1" of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.
Good luck on the last day of finals and have a great Christmas Break!!!
Plains Winter Storm: Up to 15" of snow fell in Kansas from latest winter storm. Drifts were 4-5' tall. Kansas and other surrounding states impacted by this storm will have a White Christmas.
White Christmas: As for us, a White Christmas does not look likely. Rain looks possible that day with about a .1". New models are taking precipitation completely out of the forecast. I will need 1 or 2 more model runs to confirm this. The day will start in the high 30s and will fall through the day. To be an official White Christmas, you must have 1" of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.
Good luck on the last day of finals and have a great Christmas Break!!!
Monday, December 19, 2011
Incoming Storm System... Thunderstorms???
The snow line looks very close for tomorrow morning. With that said, I am going to forecast a rain/snow mix for tomorrow morning. This rain snow mix will start between 6 and 8a.m. This may accumulate, but overall it will be minor. There may be enough to make the roads slick with slush and ice. All this will turn over to rain after 8a.m. The rain will persist through Tuesday and through most of the day on Wednesday. Given some CAPE, high dewpoints(high 40s to near 50), and temperatures to near 50, a few rumbles of thunder are possible Wednesday. The best chance for storms however, are in Southern Indiana.
New model runs: The new model run is suggesting a southward shift of the low pressure. If this trend continues, our chances for seeing snow will increase the farther south the low goes. If the low goes south of us, that will put us in the cold sector and prime for snow. A typical heavy snow track is for the low to go through southern Indiana. The current model has the low passing overhead. At this time, I still think a few wet snow flakes are possible Tuesday morning. I will update later today/evening.
New model runs: The new model run is suggesting a southward shift of the low pressure. If this trend continues, our chances for seeing snow will increase the farther south the low goes. If the low goes south of us, that will put us in the cold sector and prime for snow. A typical heavy snow track is for the low to go through southern Indiana. The current model has the low passing overhead. At this time, I still think a few wet snow flakes are possible Tuesday morning. I will update later today/evening.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Hard Forecast
Monday: Mostly cloudy skies will start Monday morning with a temp in the low-mid 30s. Skies will clear a little in the afternoon with a high in the mid 40s. Wind will be gusty from the SSW at 10-15 gusting up to 30mph. Clouds will return for the evening along with rain from the system to our SW.
It is very hard to forecast snow right now as the freezing line is close to our area. (Right now, we are in the warm sector) If you go 30 miles north, there is the potential for 1-2" of snow. Farther NW that increases to 4". This area will need to be watched. More on this tomorrow afternoon/evening.
By the way, the panhandle of Oklahoma may see up to 18" of snow!!!
It is very hard to forecast snow right now as the freezing line is close to our area. (Right now, we are in the warm sector) If you go 30 miles north, there is the potential for 1-2" of snow. Farther NW that increases to 4". This area will need to be watched. More on this tomorrow afternoon/evening.
By the way, the panhandle of Oklahoma may see up to 18" of snow!!!
Snow for Christmas?
New models are suggesting a small disturbance bringing snow in on Christmas day. At this time accumulations look to be less than an inch. This is still far away and the forecast can change. I will have the Monday forecast and the incoming storm for Tuesday later today.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Snow Potential
The snow potential is increasing. More on this tomorrow afternoon as new data and model runs come in. I may have to bump up the 1"!!
Weekend Outlook and Winter Storm?
Tonight: Clouds will begin to move in late tonight ahead of a small disturbance in Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa right now. This may bring in a few flurries. Temps will be in the mid 20s by midnight with fairly calm winds.
Saturday: The morning will start with some clouds with the possibility for some flurries. Snow will accumulate very little if at all. In any case, watch out for a few slick spots if snow does fly. The morning low will be in the mid 20s. Clouds will begin to decrease in the afternoon with a high temperature in the mid-high 30s. Winds will be 10-15mph. The evening will be mostly clear. Temps will fall into the low 30s during the evening hours.
Sunday: Sunday morning will start cool and mostly clear. Temps will be in the mid-high 20s to start the day. Clouds will be around for the afternoon, partly-mostly cloudy. Temps will rise in the afternoon to the mid 40s. Winds will be from the SSW at 10-15mph. The evening will be mostly clear with temps falling to near freezing.
A look ahead: A winter storm will target our area Monday night-Wednesday morning. Places out in Iowa may see up to a foot of snow! As for us, .75-1.5" of rain are likely.. I am thinking that we may receive some snow on the tail end of this system (Tuesday night- Wednesday morning)My math is spitting out 1-2" of snow. If the track shifts just a little, it could be the difference between no snow and up to 4". A few more model runs will clear up this forecast. I should have an idea by Sunday night. Right now, the current trend is to have the heavier snow off to our west, this is based on the last few storms we have had.
Saturday: The morning will start with some clouds with the possibility for some flurries. Snow will accumulate very little if at all. In any case, watch out for a few slick spots if snow does fly. The morning low will be in the mid 20s. Clouds will begin to decrease in the afternoon with a high temperature in the mid-high 30s. Winds will be 10-15mph. The evening will be mostly clear. Temps will fall into the low 30s during the evening hours.
Sunday: Sunday morning will start cool and mostly clear. Temps will be in the mid-high 20s to start the day. Clouds will be around for the afternoon, partly-mostly cloudy. Temps will rise in the afternoon to the mid 40s. Winds will be from the SSW at 10-15mph. The evening will be mostly clear with temps falling to near freezing.
A look ahead: A winter storm will target our area Monday night-Wednesday morning. Places out in Iowa may see up to a foot of snow! As for us, .75-1.5" of rain are likely.. I am thinking that we may receive some snow on the tail end of this system (Tuesday night- Wednesday morning)My math is spitting out 1-2" of snow. If the track shifts just a little, it could be the difference between no snow and up to 4". A few more model runs will clear up this forecast. I should have an idea by Sunday night. Right now, the current trend is to have the heavier snow off to our west, this is based on the last few storms we have had.
Weekend Outlook
I will have a new post on this weekend's weather and the potential snow maker for this week. This may be the last chance for snow. Check back around 8 for new information.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Thunderstorm Probability
Thunderstorms look possible for Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Wednesday: After rain showers through the early morning hours, the morning will have a few sprinkles and temps in the upper 40s to near 50. This warm front is the cause for this nice temps and rain tomorrow morning. Clouds will be around all day making a overcast day. Winds will also be gusting as high as 45 to even 50mph all day long. The temp will rise all day to the lower 60s by night fall. Rain ans thunderstorms will return by nightfall (after 7p.m.) This rain will hide an embedded squall line with winds up to 60 mph.
Wednesday: After rain showers through the early morning hours, the morning will have a few sprinkles and temps in the upper 40s to near 50. This warm front is the cause for this nice temps and rain tomorrow morning. Clouds will be around all day making a overcast day. Winds will also be gusting as high as 45 to even 50mph all day long. The temp will rise all day to the lower 60s by night fall. Rain ans thunderstorms will return by nightfall (after 7p.m.) This rain will hide an embedded squall line with winds up to 60 mph.
Clouds will be around all day with a few shower passing through, the temp will peak at 44 today. As night falls, the storm system will move in. The warm front will sweep over us late tonight-tomorrow morning giving us temps in the upper 50s with 60s very possible.
Wednesday: A few showers with an isolated thunderstorm are possible in the morning. It will be very windy all day with gusts as high as 50mph. The cold front will arrive late in the day with a line of thunderstorms. At this time, the storms do not look severe. This will need to be watched closely.
I will have a more in-depth analysis later this evening.
Wednesday: A few showers with an isolated thunderstorm are possible in the morning. It will be very windy all day with gusts as high as 50mph. The cold front will arrive late in the day with a line of thunderstorms. At this time, the storms do not look severe. This will need to be watched closely.
I will have a more in-depth analysis later this evening.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Set up for Thursday
This post is an add on from the previous about the storm for Tuesday-Thursday.
Early Thursday Morning: Right before the cold front passes through on Thursday morning, temps in the upper 50s to near 60º will be possible. Temps will cool all day with temps in the 30s by late afternoon-early evening. A few snow showers are possible early Thursday morning.
All the above ingredients are there for a few thunderstorms to develop.
Thunderstorms?
Thunderstorms look possible on Wednesday Night-Early Thursday Morning. There is a marginal chance for severe weather just west of us(according to the Storm Prediction Center), it will be interesting to see if this chance gets expanded eastward. As for right now, a few rumbles of thunder are likely Wednesday- Thursday. The temp will begin to fall as the storm system moves away. I wouldn't rule out the chance for a few flurries Thursday evening- Friday morning.
Today-Tonight: It is currently 45 right now with a light wind at 5-10mph. It looks clear for the rest of the day. Tonight, we will see clouds moving through. These clouds will help keep the temperature from falling through the night. A few sprinkles are possible tonight with the temp getting down to near freezing.
Map from the Storm Prediction Center for Wednesday.
Today-Tonight: It is currently 45 right now with a light wind at 5-10mph. It looks clear for the rest of the day. Tonight, we will see clouds moving through. These clouds will help keep the temperature from falling through the night. A few sprinkles are possible tonight with the temp getting down to near freezing.
Tuesday: The day will start off cool with a temp in the upper 20s. A few clouds will linger in morning. These clouds will move away and set up for a mostly clear day. Temps will warm into the mid 40s. Winds during the day will be light at 5-10mph. As night falls, clouds will begin to build in as the next storm systems moves in. Rain is possible late Tuesday evening.
Storm System Precip: This storm will be a heavy rain maker with the potential for severe weather (mainly southern Plains). Rain will most likely exceed 1". Rain totals as high as 2" are possible. Flooding will be a problem.
Outlook to Christmas: It looks fairly mild and rainy between now and Christmas. The models don't have too much snow lined up for the next 2 weeks. A White Christmas doesn't appear likely, but this can change.
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Storms Possible by the End of the Week.
Given latest trends, a few rumbles of thunder are possible Wednesday Evening- Thursday Morning. If some cold air can mix in on Thursday, a few snowflakes are possible. More on this a little later this week.
Rest of today- tonight: There will be sunny skies through the rest of the afternoon. Clouds will begin to move in overnight with a slight chance for some sprinkles maybe a flurry. These clouds will prevent the temp from hitting rock bottom. Tonight's temps will dip down into the mid-high 20s.
Monday: Monday morning will start in the mid 20s with mostly clear skies. Temps will warm rapidly in the afternoon to the low-mid 40s. Mostly clear conditions will persist through the day. Clouds will begin to move in after nightfall ahead of a front that will bring rain late Tuesday evening. Winds will be fairly light at 5-10 mph with an occasional gust at 15mph. Temps will only be in the mid 30s after nightfall.
Rest of today- tonight: There will be sunny skies through the rest of the afternoon. Clouds will begin to move in overnight with a slight chance for some sprinkles maybe a flurry. These clouds will prevent the temp from hitting rock bottom. Tonight's temps will dip down into the mid-high 20s.
Monday: Monday morning will start in the mid 20s with mostly clear skies. Temps will warm rapidly in the afternoon to the low-mid 40s. Mostly clear conditions will persist through the day. Clouds will begin to move in after nightfall ahead of a front that will bring rain late Tuesday evening. Winds will be fairly light at 5-10 mph with an occasional gust at 15mph. Temps will only be in the mid 30s after nightfall.
Friday, December 9, 2011
Storms in the forecast?
A system late next week will bring warmer temperatures, rain, and storms? Storms in December are somewhat common for our area. Here's the setup.
Thursday: A low pressure will be well off to our west and northwest. As the low goes through Iowa and Wisconsin, a warm front will rise over our area. This will make our temperatures rise into the 50s (possibly 60) with low-mid 60s for Evansville. The warm front will bring in higher dew points (40s to near 50) and promote strong wind fields(wind shear) in our area. The instability is also forecast to be a little over 100J/Kg. All these ingredients are right for some flashes of lightning. The only problem with this setup is the CINH or cape inhibition. This can equalize the instability in the atmosphere. The term cap derives from CINH. On a hot summer day, CAPE will skyrocket into the 5000-6000J/Kg, but if you have a CINH of 100-200, it will make a "cap" in the atmosphere reducing the chances for thunderstorms. If storms can break the "cap" then thunderstorms will explode and rise rapidly. There is a little CINH around, but it is hard to tell if it will be enough to put a "cap" on thunderstorm development. If a small amount of CINH moves in, thunderstorm development won't happen. It will just be a flooding rain event.
Weather System
CAPE
CINH
Next Friday: Behind this front, colder weather will move in with temps in the 20s and 30s. If the cold can come in fast enough, a chance of snow will be possible with the left over precip. with this weather system.
As for today-tonight: Expect flurries to be around all day with little to no accumulation. Temps will max out in the mid 30s. This evening will be the coldest of the season (so far) as temps fall into low-mid 10s.
Thursday: A low pressure will be well off to our west and northwest. As the low goes through Iowa and Wisconsin, a warm front will rise over our area. This will make our temperatures rise into the 50s (possibly 60) with low-mid 60s for Evansville. The warm front will bring in higher dew points (40s to near 50) and promote strong wind fields(wind shear) in our area. The instability is also forecast to be a little over 100J/Kg. All these ingredients are right for some flashes of lightning. The only problem with this setup is the CINH or cape inhibition. This can equalize the instability in the atmosphere. The term cap derives from CINH. On a hot summer day, CAPE will skyrocket into the 5000-6000J/Kg, but if you have a CINH of 100-200, it will make a "cap" in the atmosphere reducing the chances for thunderstorms. If storms can break the "cap" then thunderstorms will explode and rise rapidly. There is a little CINH around, but it is hard to tell if it will be enough to put a "cap" on thunderstorm development. If a small amount of CINH moves in, thunderstorm development won't happen. It will just be a flooding rain event.
Weather System
CAPE
CINH
Next Friday: Behind this front, colder weather will move in with temps in the 20s and 30s. If the cold can come in fast enough, a chance of snow will be possible with the left over precip. with this weather system.
As for today-tonight: Expect flurries to be around all day with little to no accumulation. Temps will max out in the mid 30s. This evening will be the coldest of the season (so far) as temps fall into low-mid 10s.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Snowfall for this Evening
One of the newer models has a heavy snow band in our area.
Snowfall Map:
Snow will start sometime around midnight tonight. Snow will continue up until 8a.m. tomorrow. After that, a few flurries are possible with colder temps.
Snowfall Map:
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Snowfall Forecast for Thursday evening - Friday mid day
After looking at the 3 main models, they don't agree with each other. As a forecaster it is difficult to pinpoint a time or snow amount. This is the best forecast I can give with my knowledge.
Here is a model that bring the snow in Friday morning. This model doesn't bring too much moisture. Snow from this model would accumulate to less than .5".
Here is another model that brings the snow in Thursday evening and bring a heavier snow band with it. Snow totals are heavier with this model cranking out 1-2" with an isolated 3".
Here is my snowfall prediction for Thursday night into Friday. I think the snow will start shortly after midnight Friday morning. The heavier band from the average of the models is located just South of us. This snowfall map will most likely change.
This forecast is preliminary and will most likely change. Every new model run shows something a little different. I will make another snowfall map tomorrow along with a detailed forecast for Friday. As for tonight, expect cold temperatures with temps dipping into the low to mid 20s. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy as the cold front nears our area. Highs will reach close to 40º.
Here is a model that bring the snow in Friday morning. This model doesn't bring too much moisture. Snow from this model would accumulate to less than .5".
Here is another model that brings the snow in Thursday evening and bring a heavier snow band with it. Snow totals are heavier with this model cranking out 1-2" with an isolated 3".
Here is my snowfall prediction for Thursday night into Friday. I think the snow will start shortly after midnight Friday morning. The heavier band from the average of the models is located just South of us. This snowfall map will most likely change.
This forecast is preliminary and will most likely change. Every new model run shows something a little different. I will make another snowfall map tomorrow along with a detailed forecast for Friday. As for tonight, expect cold temperatures with temps dipping into the low to mid 20s. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy as the cold front nears our area. Highs will reach close to 40º.
Snow for Friday
A few snow flurries here and there will be likely from now- Friday. Accumulations seem little to none.
Friday looks like we will have some snow. Early indication are that less than .5 inch of snow will fall during the day on Friday. However, this will be enough to make roads icy.
The moisture isn't there for a good 2-3inch snowfall. If some moisture can be pulled up from the south. The problem being that the Gulf of Mexico is blocked off by High pressure located in Texas. The odds of this high moving in time are near zero. So snow at or less than a half inch is possible. I will update as more model runs come in. The forecast is likely to change somewhat.
Friday looks like we will have some snow. Early indication are that less than .5 inch of snow will fall during the day on Friday. However, this will be enough to make roads icy.
The moisture isn't there for a good 2-3inch snowfall. If some moisture can be pulled up from the south. The problem being that the Gulf of Mexico is blocked off by High pressure located in Texas. The odds of this high moving in time are near zero. So snow at or less than a half inch is possible. I will update as more model runs come in. The forecast is likely to change somewhat.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Snow For Tonight
Snow looks possible for tonight. I think we will turn over to all snow around sun set. By then however, there will be little precip. to work with. I am thinking a half inch or less for tonight. A heavier band could bump this total up to an inch. Leftover snow that doesn't melt this evening will cause roads to be icy. Watch for possible ice patches tomorrow.
Snow looks to return on Friday. Accumulating snow looks possible, but it is hard to tell how much. I should have a good idea by Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
Snow looks to return on Friday. Accumulating snow looks possible, but it is hard to tell how much. I should have a good idea by Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Snow Chances?
Snow accumulations are continuing to go down for tomorrow afternoon. The freezing line for snow is (for tomorrow) 50 miles to our west. If this cold air can progress a little farther eastward, then we could see 1-2inches. As the models look right now, accumulations less than a half inch. The cold air has shifted about 20 miles eastward from the previous model run. This will need to be watched. I will update tomorrow morning.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
More Snow?
The words everyone wanted to hear...
This storm system should arrive early Monday(12-3a.m.) morning starting with rain. This rain will changeover to snow around mid morning. The snow will then begin to accumulate. Snow will be heavy at times. At this time 1-3 inches is possible, but this will likely change. More on this approaching system later.
For Tonight: Rain will begin to move into the area anytime after 10:30. Rain will be heavy at times. Temps will be in the mid 40s for the evening. Rain will be around for tomorrow with a high getting close to 50.There will be a break in the rain in the afternoon before more rain returns overnight.
This storm system should arrive early Monday(12-3a.m.) morning starting with rain. This rain will changeover to snow around mid morning. The snow will then begin to accumulate. Snow will be heavy at times. At this time 1-3 inches is possible, but this will likely change. More on this approaching system later.
For Tonight: Rain will begin to move into the area anytime after 10:30. Rain will be heavy at times. Temps will be in the mid 40s for the evening. Rain will be around for tomorrow with a high getting close to 50.There will be a break in the rain in the afternoon before more rain returns overnight.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
November 2011 and Friday Forecast
Here is a summary of the weather for November 2011
The first half of the month was warm with 4 days at or above 70º. On November 14 we had a strong cold front pass through the area. Out ahead of this front a squall line formed. The possibility for tornadoes was high that day, but a dry layer prevented tornadoes from forming. For a more in depth analysis refer to this link... http://blogs.wlfi.com/2011/11/15/
The second half of the month was much cooler with 2 instances of snow (Nov 10 and 29) Heavy rain occurred on Nov. 22 as a low track north into our area. The low kept temperatures from raising or falling too drastically.
4 of the last 5 days of November saw rain with snow on November 29. This snow was caused by a cold core upper level low that tracked to our east and south east. Heavy rain started the day with 1.5" of rain falling. The rain transitioned to snow fairly rapidly and started to accumulate in about 15-20 minutes. The snow amounts varied greatly in Indiana. There was anywhere from no snow in Benton and north western Warren Counties to 10" in Miami county. A heavy convective snow band set up over Miami county for several hours. (We received 1.5" of snow) Upper level lows are really cold at the center of their circulations. This is caused by air rising allowing for cold air to fill the gap underneath this rising air motion. We were at the western extent of the low which brought us to near freezing for a short time. This allowed for snow to accumulate for 2 hours. Snow fell at a rate of 1" per hour. As the low moved away temperatures warmed to 40º allowing for it to rain right after it had snowed. The rain along with the temp allowed for the snow to melt fairly quickly.
November was warmer and wetter than average. See Chad's Blog...
http://blogs.wlfi.com/2011/12/01/war-wet-windy-november/
for another summary of November.
We will see the possibility of a few flurries tonight with little to no accumulation expected. Friday morning will see temps in the upper 20s to near 30. A few clouds in the morning will give way to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Temps will warm into the low 40s. Winds will be from the north transitioning from the east through the day at 10-15mph.
| Attica,IN (5 miles SW Westpoint) | Tyler Snider | ||||
| November 2011 | |||||
| High | Low | Actual Avg | Precip. | Comments | |
| 11/01/11 | 72 | 32 | 52 | 0 | |
| 11/02/11 | 73 | 46 | 59.5 | 0 | |
| 11/03/11 | 55 | 45 | 50 | 0.42 | |
| 11/04/11 | 59 | 37 | 48 | 0 | |
| 11/05/11 | 64 | 34 | 49 | 0 | frost |
| 11/06/11 | 68 | 41 | 54.5 | 0 | rain late |
| 11/07/11 | 58 | 52 | 55 | 0.4 | rain |
| 11/08/11 | 72 | 53 | 62.5 | 0.4 | rain late |
| 11/09/11 | 63 | 40 | 51.5 | 0.02 | |
| 11/10/11 | 43 | 33 | 38 | 0 | New Weather Station |
| 11/11/11 | 48.8 | 25.2 | 37 | 0 | |
| 11/12/11 | 64.8 | 40.5 | 52.65 | 0 | |
| 11/13/11 | 68.9 | 54 | 61.45 | 0 | |
| 11/14/11 | 71.6 | 47.2 | 59.4 | 1.04 | Severe Storms in the area |
| 11/15/11 | 63.4 | 46.1 | 54.75 | 0 | |
| 11/16/11 | 53.6 | 34.9 | 44.25 | 0 | |
| 11/17/11 | 41 | 24.8 | 32.9 | 0 | |
| 11/18/11 | 52.2 | 26.4 | 39.3 | 0 | |
| 11/19/11 | 59.7 | 43.2 | 51.45 | 0.01 | |
| 11/20/11 | 60.1 | 40.8 | 50.45 | 0.01 | ice pellets 11p.m. |
| 11/21/11 | 51.2 | 40.6 | 45.9 | 0 | |
| 11/22/11 | 45.3 | 42.1 | 43.7 | 1.16 | |
| 11/23/11 | 52.2 | 33.3 | 42.75 | 0 | |
| 11/24/11 | 49.4 | 38.5 | 43.95 | 0 | |
| 11/25/11 | 62.9 | 38.5 | 50.7 | 0 | |
| 11/26/11 | 66.2 | 50.5 | 58.35 | 0.21 | |
| 11/27/11 | 56.8 | 37.6 | 47.2 | 0.66 | |
| 11/28/11 | 39.1 | 35.8 | 37.45 | 0.33 | |
| 11/29/11 | 38.8 | 32.6 | 35.7 | 1.49 | 1.5” of snow |
| 11/30/11 | 41.5 | 23.4 | 32.45 | 0 | |
| 57.15 | 38.97 | 48.06 | 6.15 | 1.5” of snow for the month | |
| Normal | 50.94 | 32.5 | 41.72 | 2.97 | Days at or above 70º: 4 60º: 13 |
| Departure | 6.21 | 6.47 | 6.34 | 3.18 | |
The second half of the month was much cooler with 2 instances of snow (Nov 10 and 29) Heavy rain occurred on Nov. 22 as a low track north into our area. The low kept temperatures from raising or falling too drastically.
4 of the last 5 days of November saw rain with snow on November 29. This snow was caused by a cold core upper level low that tracked to our east and south east. Heavy rain started the day with 1.5" of rain falling. The rain transitioned to snow fairly rapidly and started to accumulate in about 15-20 minutes. The snow amounts varied greatly in Indiana. There was anywhere from no snow in Benton and north western Warren Counties to 10" in Miami county. A heavy convective snow band set up over Miami county for several hours. (We received 1.5" of snow) Upper level lows are really cold at the center of their circulations. This is caused by air rising allowing for cold air to fill the gap underneath this rising air motion. We were at the western extent of the low which brought us to near freezing for a short time. This allowed for snow to accumulate for 2 hours. Snow fell at a rate of 1" per hour. As the low moved away temperatures warmed to 40º allowing for it to rain right after it had snowed. The rain along with the temp allowed for the snow to melt fairly quickly.
November was warmer and wetter than average. See Chad's Blog...
http://blogs.wlfi.com/2011/12/01/war-wet-windy-november/
for another summary of November.
We will see the possibility of a few flurries tonight with little to no accumulation expected. Friday morning will see temps in the upper 20s to near 30. A few clouds in the morning will give way to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Temps will warm into the low 40s. Winds will be from the north transitioning from the east through the day at 10-15mph.
Welcome to December
Well there are only 25 days until Christmas!! I will have a summary of the weather in November later today. I will also make a forecast through Sunday.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Snowfall Totals
I forgot to say how much we received. Odell (my house) received 1.5" Attica received 1" Lafayette received 2.6" Benton County near 0 Northwestern Warren County 0-Trace There are places in eastern and northeastern Indiana who have received 5". Some of these places may see up to 8" of snow!!
Snowfall Totals
How did everybody like there first measurable snowfall. All the rain and leftover snow will freeze tomorrow morning to make an icy commute. Lows into the mid 20s may occur this evening into tomorrow morning. Drive carefully and watch for ice.
Monday, November 28, 2011
Snowfall Estimates
Snow is likely for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. How much you may ask? I feel that .5" is likely with up to 3" not out of the question. All it takes is for the track to wobble just a little. The track of the low will be the difference maker. Also, dynamic cooling will happen with isolated spots getting more than other areas. Something that will be cool to watch for is thundersnow. Thundersnow occurs when snow falls very quickly cloud structures are similar to thunderstorms. I will update as more information is available.
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Snow Chances For Next Week
It's getting to be that time of the year when we start to talk about snow accumulations. Sunday-Wednesday will see plenty of chances for accumulating snow. Sunday night into Monday will see the chance for snow with up to a half inch possible.
The interesting day for snow looks like Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning. The models have anywhere from no snow up to 4". I can't definitely put a snow amount on it because it is so hard to forecast. Dynamic cooling is the main culprit in this forecasting headache. One place may see a few inches of snow while another place not 15 miles away won't even see a flurry. Dynamic cooling is random and changes frequently. Depending on where this dynamic cooling is at a given time will tell how much snow will happen in a given area.
I think we will see snow Tuesday-Wednesday, but it's anyone's guess as to how much. I hope to have a better idea on totals by Monday night.
The interesting day for snow looks like Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning. The models have anywhere from no snow up to 4". I can't definitely put a snow amount on it because it is so hard to forecast. Dynamic cooling is the main culprit in this forecasting headache. One place may see a few inches of snow while another place not 15 miles away won't even see a flurry. Dynamic cooling is random and changes frequently. Depending on where this dynamic cooling is at a given time will tell how much snow will happen in a given area.
I think we will see snow Tuesday-Wednesday, but it's anyone's guess as to how much. I hope to have a better idea on totals by Monday night.
Friday, November 25, 2011
Showers, Snow, and a look ahead into early December
We will see a wave of showers begin to move in tomorrow late afternoon-early evening. This wave of showers will persist through Sunday ending with the possibility of a few snow flurries. Snow on Sunday will not accumulate to much, probably a dusting at best. Rain totals for Saturday - Sunday should amount from .4-.6"
We will see a wave of showers with a few snow showers arrive from the south late morning-early afternoon on Monday. Snow looks minimal with up to a half inch possible.
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning looks promising for snow. It is still too early to tell how much will accumulate. I will let everyone know as the time gets closer.
We will see a wave of showers with a few snow showers arrive from the south late morning-early afternoon on Monday. Snow looks minimal with up to a half inch possible.
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning looks promising for snow. It is still too early to tell how much will accumulate. I will let everyone know as the time gets closer.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Snow Potential Early Next Week
Sunday
It will be warm enough for rain in the morning and afternoon. Toward late afternoon and early evening a few flurries may fall. At this point, a dusting is possible. The ground will be warm from the 60s the past few days so snow will have a hard time sticking.
Monday - Wednesday
The new model runs have taken precipitation completely off for this time period.
December 8th
This day in particular has a good chance of seeing measurable snow fall. The current model (as I read it) is suggesting 1-3 inches of snow, but this is really far in advance and will likely change. It does look like a big rain/snow storm for the country sometime around this date. I will keep my eye on this and I will let you know the latest information as it comes in.
It will be warm enough for rain in the morning and afternoon. Toward late afternoon and early evening a few flurries may fall. At this point, a dusting is possible. The ground will be warm from the 60s the past few days so snow will have a hard time sticking.
Monday - Wednesday
The new model runs have taken precipitation completely off for this time period.
December 8th
This day in particular has a good chance of seeing measurable snow fall. The current model (as I read it) is suggesting 1-3 inches of snow, but this is really far in advance and will likely change. It does look like a big rain/snow storm for the country sometime around this date. I will keep my eye on this and I will let you know the latest information as it comes in.
Storms, Snow Chances, and Thansgiving Day Forecast
The end of this week will be extremely nice. Temps for tomorrow will approach 60 (morning low in the upper30s) with mostly clear skies and with a 15-25mph wind coming out of the south.
Friday
will be even better with temps in the low 60s(morning low of low to mid 40s). The skies will start sunny with some increasing clouds in the afternoon. There will be a south wind at 15-25mph with gusts to 30mph.
Saturday
will be even warmer with temps approaching the mid 60s(morning low of mid to upper40s). A cold front will move through in the afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Given the moderate instability and some CAPE, there is the slight chance one of these storms will be strong. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Chance of precip. is 60%. Winds will be from the south to begin the day at 15-25mph. As the cold front passes, winds will be from the west at 20-30mph with gusts as high as 40mph overnight. The temp will fall rapidly overnight with wind chills in the teens-20s.
Sunday
will be cool with a high of only around 40 (morning low in the low to mid 30s). Rain, snow, and sleet showers will be around for the entire day. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Winds will be from the west-northwest around 10-20mph.
Enjoy the next 3 days. After Saturday, there is a chance for snow showers every day through Tuesday. I will have a blog a little later about how much snow we can expect.
Friday
will be even better with temps in the low 60s(morning low of low to mid 40s). The skies will start sunny with some increasing clouds in the afternoon. There will be a south wind at 15-25mph with gusts to 30mph.
Saturday
will be even warmer with temps approaching the mid 60s(morning low of mid to upper40s). A cold front will move through in the afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Given the moderate instability and some CAPE, there is the slight chance one of these storms will be strong. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Chance of precip. is 60%. Winds will be from the south to begin the day at 15-25mph. As the cold front passes, winds will be from the west at 20-30mph with gusts as high as 40mph overnight. The temp will fall rapidly overnight with wind chills in the teens-20s.
Sunday
will be cool with a high of only around 40 (morning low in the low to mid 30s). Rain, snow, and sleet showers will be around for the entire day. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Winds will be from the west-northwest around 10-20mph.
Enjoy the next 3 days. After Saturday, there is a chance for snow showers every day through Tuesday. I will have a blog a little later about how much snow we can expect.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Snowfall
The first snowfall for western Indiana is coming soon. When you may ask, well next week. Monday looks prime for snow. At this time, it looks like around .5", but this may change.
Storms, Snow, Sleet, and Freezing Rain Potential
I will have a forecast later this afternoon/evening on the potential of all the above weather phenomena.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Brush Fire Danger
Given the low humidity (less than 30%), low dew point, and gusty winds. Today is prime for a minor brush fire to start. If you have to burn something today keep your eye on it. Be sure to have a hose ready to put out the fire if it leaves the confines of the fire pit.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
7 Day Forecast
Here is the 7 day forecast.
Thursday November 17
It will be a frigid morning with lows around 25. A few clouds in the morning will lead to mostly clear skies in the afternoon. Winds will be out of the west-northwest 15-20mph gusting to 30. The high temp will only top out at 43.
Friday November 18
It will be another frigid morning with lows again around 25. Skies will be mostly cloudy turning to all cloudy by the end of the day into the evening. It will be a winy afternoon with winds out of the south from 20-25 gusting to 35mph. The high temp will top out near 50.
Saturday November 19
The morning will be cool, but not as cool as the previous morning only getting down to 32. Skies will be cloudy for the most part with a chance for a few peaks of sun. Rain showers are possible late Saturday. At this time there is no indication of storms, but this might change. Rain will most likely move in after 7. The Purdue game will be cloudy and windy with a south wind at 20-25mph with gusts near 35mph. Highs for the afternoon Saturday should be in the mid 40s, but the high temp will come overnight as temps will rise into the mid 50s. This is due in part to a low pressure moving to our north and north west. This will allow warm air to be transported into the warm sector, image of this below.
Sunday November 20
The morning will warm with temps in the mid 50s and rainy. Showers with possible thunderstorms will continue until mid-day before decreasing to a chance for sprinkles in the afternoon. The chance for precipitation is 50%. Rain totals will be light with less than a quarter of an inch(slightly more in thunderstorms). The high will come in the morning as the temp will fall through the afternoon with the passage of the cold front. This temp will fall to the high 30s by midnight. Skies will transition from cloudy to mostly cloudy after the passage of the cold front. Winds will be from the south from 15-25mph. The winds will change from the north after mid day with winds 5-10mph. This north wind will help cool us rather quickly.
Monday November 21
The morning will start cool with temps in the mid 30s. Overall, it will be a cool cloudy day with a chance for rain in the afternoon as a shortwave passes. There may be a snow shower or 2 for the morning, but it won't accumulate. The chance for precipitation is 25%. Winds will be from the north at 10-15mph. The high temperature will only top out around 44.
Tuesday November 22
The morning will be nice with temps in the mid 40s. Skies will be cloudy with a 40% chance for rain later in the day through the evening as a low pressure rides along the Ohio River. Winds will be from the east at 10-15mph. The high temp will be about 52.
Wednesday November 23
Temps will be cool for the morning commute with temps in the low 30s. There will be a cool wind from the north and north west at 10-20mph. Skies will be mostly clear to start the day transitioning to partly cloudy later in the day. High temperatures will top out in the high 40s.
At this time, no snow more than 1 inch is expected within this 7 day forecast. Do you want to guess when the first 1” snowfall for Lafayette will be? If you do head on over to WLFI to guess the date and time. If you guess the date correctly, you will win a $600 gift card for Meijer, a lift time supply of salt for your driveway, and a visit from the meteorologist at WLFI to help shovel your snow. The link to the sweepstakes is below. You have to 18 years or older and you have to reside in the WLFI viewing area. Good Luck!!
7 Day Detailed Forecast Later This Evening
I have been extremely busy lately and I haven't had time to blog about the weather. I won't blog tomorrow (tomorrow will be my 18th birthday), but I will put a detailed 7 day forecast on here later this afternoon/evening. There may be a few surprises...
Monday, November 14, 2011
Severe Storms Possible For Mid To Late Afternoon
The track has shifted a little to the north allowing for more instability for thunderstorms here. Everything is in place to have severe weather as mentioned in the last blog post. Given the very high wind shear, these storm will merge into a QLCS line or squall line. The main threats with this squall line will be damaging winds, and an isolated weak tornado.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Severe Threat For Tomorrow
Tonight: showers and thunderstorms will arrive later this evening. Given the weak instability, a small hailer is possible. The temp will only drop to a low of 50.
The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow in our area. We will have 300-500J/Kg CAPE, high shear, temps in the mid 60s, and some good moisture coming from the gulf. All these ingredients are a good sign for severe weather. The question is, will the instability hold out for our area. There is a very steep drop off a few miles to the north. The further the track of the low north, the better chance for severe weather. All in all, it is going to be close.
The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow in our area. We will have 300-500J/Kg CAPE, high shear, temps in the mid 60s, and some good moisture coming from the gulf. All these ingredients are a good sign for severe weather. The question is, will the instability hold out for our area. There is a very steep drop off a few miles to the north. The further the track of the low north, the better chance for severe weather. All in all, it is going to be close.
Friday, November 11, 2011
Weekend Forecast and Storm Chances
Saturday November 12
Lows for the morning look to be around 32º under mostly clear skies. Saturday will have sunny skies with a high getting close to 60º. It will also be windy with winds 15-25mph gusting to 35mph. The evening will be nice with temps only dropping to the mid 40s.
Sunday November 13
Sunday morning will be crisp with a temp in the mid 40s. Temps will climb in the afternoon to the low 60s as a warm front migrates northward. Showers will be possible along this front from late morning into the afternoon. Winds will be gusty at 20-30mph with gusts as high as 40mph. The evening will have a chance for rain with temps getting down into the high 40s low 50s.
Monday November 14
Monday morning will be decent with a temp in the low 50s. Showers and thunderstorms will be around for the day as the warm front stalls out over our area. The temp will max out in the mid 60s(maybe even as high as 70º). Winds will be again be gusty at 10-20mph gusting to near 30mph. Given the instability, shear, and dew points in the 50s. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a severe storm or 2 Monday afternoon. It is still too early to tell at this point, but I will definitely keep my eye on later model runs to see what they show.
Happy Veterans Day to all the veterans out there!! Thank you for your service!!
Lows for the morning look to be around 32º under mostly clear skies. Saturday will have sunny skies with a high getting close to 60º. It will also be windy with winds 15-25mph gusting to 35mph. The evening will be nice with temps only dropping to the mid 40s.
Sunday November 13
Sunday morning will be crisp with a temp in the mid 40s. Temps will climb in the afternoon to the low 60s as a warm front migrates northward. Showers will be possible along this front from late morning into the afternoon. Winds will be gusty at 20-30mph with gusts as high as 40mph. The evening will have a chance for rain with temps getting down into the high 40s low 50s.
Monday November 14
Monday morning will be decent with a temp in the low 50s. Showers and thunderstorms will be around for the day as the warm front stalls out over our area. The temp will max out in the mid 60s(maybe even as high as 70º). Winds will be again be gusty at 10-20mph gusting to near 30mph. Given the instability, shear, and dew points in the 50s. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a severe storm or 2 Monday afternoon. It is still too early to tell at this point, but I will definitely keep my eye on later model runs to see what they show.
Happy Veterans Day to all the veterans out there!! Thank you for your service!!
Thursday, November 10, 2011
New Weather Station!!
I have a new weather station that is broadcasting on the web. Here is the link......
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KINATTIC3
Be sure to bookmark this so you can go directly to it.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KINATTIC3
Be sure to bookmark this so you can go directly to it.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Tomorrow and what's to come...
A few showers will linger through the evening hours. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with a chilly high only reaching 42º. We will see a temp Thursday night into Friday morning achieve a low of 25º.
Storms return to the forecast for early next week. At this point, it appears the setup will be similar to the system that has impacted us the last few days. We will see temps get close to 70º for Monday and Tuesday. Severe storms are not anticipated right now, but this can change.
We will need to watch this closely to see if this instability will move farther north.
Storms return to the forecast for early next week. At this point, it appears the setup will be similar to the system that has impacted us the last few days. We will see temps get close to 70º for Monday and Tuesday. Severe storms are not anticipated right now, but this can change.
Cold Front Passing, temps are beginning to fall.
Temps have fallen from 62 to 58 in the last hour. We are well on our way to a low of the mid 20s for tonight. This front brought an estimated 35-40mph gust. Hard to tell from the Spanish room.....
A stray shower is possible, but overall it should be a dry, cool, and mostly cloudy. I will have a new post later this afternoon.
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Alaska Superstorm
This storm is absolutely incredible here is a satellite picture...
It is basically a cold weather hurricane. This is a very life threatening situation for the residents of Alaska. Winds from this are sustained at over 70 mph with gusts at or over 100 mph. Extensive tree and power pole damage with widespread power outages likely. It is the "Perfect Storm"/storm of the century. Wave heights will be an astounding 40feet. Alaska will have a storm surge as high as 10 feet in some locations. Not only is there wind and waves, but the chance for heavy snow with blizzard like conditions. Also, a phenomena known as freezing spray will occur. (pic below) This is when water (generally from waves or wind) freezes instantly to a surface. It is a mini ice storm along coasts. Ice can accumulate in inches. This storm's central pressure may reach a staggering 940mb or the equivalent of a category 4 or even 5 hurricane. This storm is very comparable to our super storm last year. This storm brought damaging winds and tornadoes to the area and to eastern half of the United States. The low pressure achieved a strength of 955mb.
Here is a picture from October 26, 2011. It is basically a land hurricane.
Crazy and exciting weather!!!
Showers are beginning to move in... Thunderstorms tonight
A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the southern plains right now. As of right now 5 tornadoes have been reported. 6 were reported yesterday with Reed Timmer (storm chaser) intercepting one in the "Dominator" Link here.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FY4glJCmvs
Now to the severe question for this evening??? As I have said in previous posts, we need instability to make these storms severe. Unfortunately little to no instability is forecast for this evening. A severe threat goes right up to I-57 where the higher instability will be located. As for us, wind gusts of 40mph and rain will be likely. No severe weather is expected, but a storm that can hold together from Illinois could maintain its Strong to Severe nature.
As for tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms will be around for the morning commute. After 10a.m. tomorrow, showers will turn more isolated. Temps of mid 50s to near 60 will be around in the morning. Unfortunately, as the cold front passes through, temps will fall through the day. After school temps look to be in the low 40s.
Monday, November 7, 2011
Rainfall So Far
I have received .4" of rain so far here at my home.
Scattered rain showers will continue through the evening. With the passage of a warm front, we will stay in the mid 50s overnight into tomorrow morning.
We will see a high temp of over 70º tomorrow. Hard to believe, but it is what it is. An isolated shower is possible in the afternoon-evening.
I will talk about our severe weather threat for Wednesday morning tomorrow on my next blog post. By then, I should have a good idea what the storms are going to do. Until then, good night!
Scattered rain showers will continue through the evening. With the passage of a warm front, we will stay in the mid 50s overnight into tomorrow morning.
We will see a high temp of over 70º tomorrow. Hard to believe, but it is what it is. An isolated shower is possible in the afternoon-evening.
I will talk about our severe weather threat for Wednesday morning tomorrow on my next blog post. By then, I should have a good idea what the storms are going to do. Until then, good night!
Today..... Severe weather for Wednesday??
Showers will continue to move through the area as a warm front slowly raises to the north. Due to the lack of instability, scattered thunderstorms are not likely today, but an isolated rumble of thunder is possible. Expect a high of around 57 later in the day with an overnight low of around 50.
Severe storms are beginning to look possible early Wednesday morning given heightened instability near 100J/Kg(compared to earlier model runs). The Gulf of Mexico has also opened up for this weather system allowing an abundant supply of moisture for the storm to feed off of. Dew points will be in the low to mid 50s, which is abnormally high for this time of year. This moisture is being transported by the LLJ (Low level jet) LLJ winds will be in the neighborhood of 80-100mph. Shear (winds varying with height) will also be abundant Helicity (or spin in the atmosphere) will be high promoting a better chance of a tornado being formed. An isolated tornado of EF0 strength is not ruled out, but the main threats will be damaging winds. The overall storm mode would be linear (given the high shear). This information points towards a squall line. A squall line can produce damaging winds and an isolated weak tornado. Below is the overall weather picture for Wednesday morning.
Snow from this system will exceed 6" in places from the Great Plains through Northern Michigan and along the U.S. Canadian border.
Stay tuned for updates on the possibility of a heightened risk for severe weather Wednesday morning.
Severe storms are beginning to look possible early Wednesday morning given heightened instability near 100J/Kg(compared to earlier model runs). The Gulf of Mexico has also opened up for this weather system allowing an abundant supply of moisture for the storm to feed off of. Dew points will be in the low to mid 50s, which is abnormally high for this time of year. This moisture is being transported by the LLJ (Low level jet) LLJ winds will be in the neighborhood of 80-100mph. Shear (winds varying with height) will also be abundant Helicity (or spin in the atmosphere) will be high promoting a better chance of a tornado being formed. An isolated tornado of EF0 strength is not ruled out, but the main threats will be damaging winds. The overall storm mode would be linear (given the high shear). This information points towards a squall line. A squall line can produce damaging winds and an isolated weak tornado. Below is the overall weather picture for Wednesday morning.
Stay tuned for updates on the possibility of a heightened risk for severe weather Wednesday morning.
Sunday, November 6, 2011
Tonight's Weather..... Severe Chances??
We will see the possibility of showers tonight with the passage of a cold front overnight. Showers look possible anytime after midnight. There are a few showers beginning to show up on radar right now. They are light and moving to the northeast.
Tomorrow showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon. This graph is a picture of 4p.m. tomorrow.
As of right now, there is very weak instability for severe storms Tuesday-Wednesday. Cape values are only maxing out at 50j/kg for our area. If the atmosphere can get to 150j/kg, we will have a better chance at severe weather. There is good wind shear and decent moisture available. If there was severe weather, it would mainly be a damaging wind threat with linear storm segments (squall lines) or multi cell clusters. Along with the damaging wind threat, an isolated EF0-EF1 tornado threat will exist. Mainly for the reason of a highly sheared environment in our area at the time. I will keep everyone up to date as new data comes in.
Snow is still possible later in the month, I will elaborate on this when the time gets closer.
By the way, THANKS to everyone who is viewing this blog. I will do my best to keep you informed about the local and sometimes national weather conditions. I will use this blog as my main weather forecasting outlet.
As of right now, there is very weak instability for severe storms Tuesday-Wednesday. Cape values are only maxing out at 50j/kg for our area. If the atmosphere can get to 150j/kg, we will have a better chance at severe weather. There is good wind shear and decent moisture available. If there was severe weather, it would mainly be a damaging wind threat with linear storm segments (squall lines) or multi cell clusters. Along with the damaging wind threat, an isolated EF0-EF1 tornado threat will exist. Mainly for the reason of a highly sheared environment in our area at the time. I will keep everyone up to date as new data comes in.
Snow is still possible later in the month, I will elaborate on this when the time gets closer.
By the way, THANKS to everyone who is viewing this blog. I will do my best to keep you informed about the local and sometimes national weather conditions. I will use this blog as my main weather forecasting outlet.
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